KalshiPoliticsActive

Who will win the next presidential election? J.D. Vance

21¢+376

last trade · closes 2029-11-07

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24h volume$34.1K

Open interest$2.4M

Lifetime volume$4.2M

Odds history

How this market settles

Pays Yes when: If J.D.
When: Closes 2029-11-07.

Read the full rules Kalshi publishes

If J.D. Vance is the next person inaugurated as President for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

What this bet really costs you

Stake ($)Contract price (¢)

On $100 at 21¢ you pay $5.53 in fees on Kalshi
1.16¢ per contract · 476 contracts
On $100 at 21¢ you pay $4.74 in fees on Polymarket US
1.00¢ per contract · 476 contracts

Exchange-side taker fees per each venue's published formula (rate × contracts × price × (1 − price)); contracts = stake ÷ price, rounded down to whole contracts. Fees peak at 50¢ and shrink toward the extremes. Most quoted cross-venue “arbs” are negative-EV after these fees; the taker-fee breakeven on a Kalshi/Polymarket pair is roughly 3.5–4¢.

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Polymarket moved 8¢ on US recession in 2026? in the last 60 minutes (12¢ → 20¢). Kalshi hasn't caught up — still sitting at 14¢.

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Data: Kalshi id KXPRESPERSON-28-JVAN · ← All tracked markets