KalshiOtherActive

Will a one-time tax on billionaires ballot initiative in California pass?

29¢+245

last trade · closes 2027-11-03

Open on Kalshi (opens in a new tab)Compare across venues

24h volume$76.9K
Open interest$347.1K
Lifetime volume$977.0K

Odds history

Implied odds over timebid/askmidyesno39%30%21%Sep 20 06:08 UTCSep 21 23:10 UTC

How this market settles

can settle early

Pays Yes when
If a one-time tax on billionaires ballot initiative in California passes, then the market resolves to Yes.
When
Closes 2027-11-03.
Read the full rules Kalshi publishes

If a one-time tax on billionaires ballot initiative in California passes, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details.

What this bet really costs you

  • On $100 at 29¢ you pay $4.96 in fees on Kalshi

    1.44¢ per contract · 344 contracts

  • On $100 at 29¢ you pay $4.25 in fees on Polymarket US

    1.24¢ per contract · 344 contracts

Exchange-side taker fees per each venue's published formula (rate × contracts × price × (1 − price)); contracts = stake ÷ price, rounded down to whole contracts. Fees peak at 50¢ and shrink toward the extremes. Most quoted cross-venue “arbs” are negative-EV after these fees; the taker-fee breakeven on a Kalshi/Polymarket pair is roughly 3.5–4¢.

Free Telegram alerts. Example:

Polymarket moved 8¢ on US recession in 2026? in the last 60 minutes (12¢ → 20¢). Kalshi hasn't caught up — still sitting at 14¢.

Get alerts (opens in a new tab)

Data: Kalshi id KXCAWEALTHTAX-26 · ← All tracked markets