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Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?

78¢−355

last trade · closes 2027-01-01

Open on PolymarketCompare across venues

24h volume$21.1K
Open interest$35.1K
Lifetime volume$1.6M

Quick answers

Where is "Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?" cheaper right now?
Polymarket last trade 78¢ (−355). No matched twin on another venue, so there is no cross-venue price to compare.
When does "Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?" settle?
Closes 2027-01-01. Pays Yes when: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic shares are listed on a public securities exchange and open for trading by 11:59 PM ET on the listed date.

Odds history

Implied odds over timebid/askmid100%85%71%Oct 30 00:22 UTCNov 05 16:22 UTC

192 archived bid/ask quotes for "Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?" on Polymarket, 2026-10-30 to 2026-11-05.

Smart money

Fills of $10,000 or more by wallets the ledger tracks, as the venue's public data API reports them: who is on which side, at what price, and the price a $100 order would pay on Polymarket now. Not a tip, and not advice.

46 tracked wallets have fills here, the biggest $20,807. Bought: Yes $149,775 · No $17,754.

All whale receipts →

How this market settles

Pays Yes when
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic shares are listed on a public securities exchange and open for trading by 11:59 PM ET on the listed date.
Who decides
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If Anthropic is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market is official filings and…
When
Closes 2027-01-01.
Read the full rules Polymarket publishes

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic shares are listed on a public securities exchange and open for trading by 11:59 PM ET on the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If Anthropic is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market is official filings and announcements from Anthropic and the relevant securities exchange on which the shares are listed, including SEC filings (e.g., Form S-1, Form 8-A), exchange listing confirmations, and official press releases from Anthropic; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Heads up: Polymarket has 1 disputed resolution in our archive. Read the rules before you bet.

What this bet really costs you

  • On $100 at 78¢ you pay $1.54 in fees on Kalshi

    1.20¢ per contract · 128 contracts

  • On $100 at 78¢ you pay $1.10 in fees on Polymarket US

    0.86¢ per contract · 128 contracts

Polymarket rate read from the catalog for sports_fees_v3 (13,919 markets in a sample of 20,000 rows drawn from 260,838 in the archive). Kalshi's rate is its published general schedule; the PDF has been rate-limiting fetches, so it is documented rather than verified.

Exchange-side taker fees per each venue's published formula (rate × contracts × price × (1 − price)); contracts = stake ÷ price, rounded down to whole contracts. Fees peak at 50¢ and shrink toward the extremes. Most quoted cross-venue “arbs” are negative-EV after these fees; the taker-fee breakeven on a Kalshi/Polymarket pair is roughly 3.5–4¢.

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Polymarket moved 8¢ on US recession in 2026? in the last 60 minutes (12¢ → 20¢). Kalshi hasn't caught up — still sitting at 14¢.Get alerts
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Data: Polymarket id 0xb40b0cd531184a1e436d23ca898e1590418187b116f387158753d1adb9853e47 · ← All tracked markets

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