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PolymarketCryptoOpen

Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026?

53¢−113

last trade · closes 2027-01-01

Open on PolymarketCompare across venues

24h volume$148.9K
Open interest$91.1K
Lifetime volume$1.6M

Quick answers

Where is "Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026?" cheaper right now?
Polymarket last trade 53¢ (−113). No matched twin on another venue, so there is no cross-venue price to compare.
When does "Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026?" settle?
Closes 2027-01-01. Pays Yes when: This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1-minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) from the creation of this market through 11:59 PM ET on the last day of the year specified in the title has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or…

Odds history

Implied odds over timebid/askmid63%49%36%Nov 01 00:23 UTCNov 07 00:16 UTC

190 archived bid/ask quotes for "Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026?" on Polymarket, 2026-11-01 to 2026-11-07.

Smart money

Fills of $10,000 or more by wallets the ledger tracks, as the venue's public data API reports them: who is on which side, at what price, and the price a $100 order would pay on Polymarket now. Not a tip, and not advice.

20 tracked wallets have fills here, the biggest $72,475. Bought: Yes $207,998 · No $188,801.

All whale receipts →

How this market settles

Pays Yes when
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1-minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) from the creation of this market through 11:59 PM ET on the last day of the year specified in the title has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or…
Who decides
The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT “High” and “Low” prices available at: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with the chart settings on “1m” (one-minute candles) selected on the top bar.
Venue’s stated source
https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT
When
Closes 2027-01-01.
Read the full rules Polymarket publishes

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1-minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) from the creation of this market through 11:59 PM ET on the last day of the year specified in the title has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No”. Price action before this market's creation will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT “High” and “Low” prices available at: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with the chart settings on “1m” (one-minute candles) selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

What this bet really costs you

  • On $100 at 53¢ you pay $3.28 in fees on Kalshi

    1.74¢ per contract · 188 contracts

  • On $100 at 53¢ you pay $2.34 in fees on Polymarket US

    1.25¢ per contract · 188 contracts

Polymarket rate read from the catalog for sports_fees_v3 (13,171 markets in a sample of 20,000 rows drawn from 237,279 in the archive). Kalshi's rate is its published general schedule; the PDF has been rate-limiting fetches, so it is documented rather than verified.

Exchange-side taker fees per each venue's published formula (rate × contracts × price × (1 − price)); contracts = stake ÷ price, rounded down to whole contracts. Fees peak at 50¢ and shrink toward the extremes. Most quoted cross-venue “arbs” are negative-EV after these fees; the taker-fee breakeven on a Kalshi/Polymarket pair is roughly 3.5–4¢.

Free channel: gaps at the next rebuild. Members: the instant one matching your watches, in your DM.

Polymarket moved 8¢ on US recession in 2026? in the last 60 minutes (12¢ → 20¢). Kalshi hasn't caught up — still sitting at 14¢.Get alerts
Members get every gap, fork and lag as the scan finds it, 35–55 minutes after the hour.
Real-time scanning costs us per scan. The 6-hour board stays free forever.

Data: Polymarket id 0x6d7203b2161a636a6ad554a986400e29411aecfdb51f91416a0ef9f7b6685e3b · ← All tracked markets

Gaps close in hours.

The free channel posts at the next rebuild; members' DMs arrive as the scan finds it.

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