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Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?
1.8¢
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Quick answers
- Where is "Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?" cheaper right now?
- Polymarket last trade 1.8¢. No matched twin on another venue, so there is no cross-venue price to compare.
- When does "Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?" settle?
- Closes 2027-01-01. Pays Yes when: This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title by 11:59PM ET on the date specified in the title.
Odds history
200 archived bid/ask quotes for "Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?" on Polymarket, 2026-10-26 to 2026-11-01.
How this market settles
- Pays Yes when
- This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title by 11:59PM ET on the date specified in the title.
- Who decides
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute…
- Venue’s stated source
- https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT
- When
- Closes 2027-01-01.
Read the full rules Polymarket publishes
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title by 11:59PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Heads up: Polymarket has 4 disputed resolutions in our archive. Read the rules before you bet.
What this bet really costs you
On $100 at 2¢ you pay $6.86 in fees on Kalshi
0.14¢ per contract · 5000 contracts
On $100 at 2¢ you pay $4.90 in fees on Polymarket US
0.10¢ per contract · 5000 contracts
Polymarket rate read from the catalog for sports_fees_v3 (15,702 markets in a sample of 20,000 rows drawn from 580,600 in the archive). Kalshi's rate is its published general schedule; the PDF has been rate-limiting fetches, so it is documented rather than verified.
Exchange-side taker fees per each venue's published formula (rate × contracts × price × (1 − price)); contracts = stake ÷ price, rounded down to whole contracts. Fees peak at 50¢ and shrink toward the extremes. Most quoted cross-venue “arbs” are negative-EV after these fees; the taker-fee breakeven on a Kalshi/Polymarket pair is roughly 3.5–4¢.
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Data: Polymarket id 0x02deb9538f5c123373adaa4ee6217b01745f1662bc902e46ac92f3fe6f8741e8 · ← All tracked markets