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Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?
3.2¢+3025
Open on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)Compare across venues
Quick answers
- Where is "Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?" cheaper right now?
- Polymarket last trade 3.2¢ (+3025). No matched twin on another venue, so there is no cross-venue price to compare.
- When does "Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?" settle?
- Closes 2027-01-01. Pays Yes when: This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the…
Odds history
201 archived bid/ask quotes for "Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?" on Polymarket, 2026-10-26 to 2026-11-01.
How this market settles
- Pays Yes when
- This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the…
- Who decides
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute…
- Venue’s stated source
- https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT
- When
- Closes 2027-01-01.
Read the full rules Polymarket publishes
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Heads up: Polymarket has 4 disputed resolutions in our archive. Read the rules before you bet.
What this bet really costs you
On $100 at 3¢ you pay $6.79 in fees on Kalshi
0.20¢ per contract · 3333 contracts
On $100 at 3¢ you pay $4.85 in fees on Polymarket US
0.15¢ per contract · 3333 contracts
Polymarket rate read from the catalog for sports_fees_v3 (15,702 markets in a sample of 20,000 rows drawn from 580,600 in the archive). Kalshi's rate is its published general schedule; the PDF has been rate-limiting fetches, so it is documented rather than verified.
Exchange-side taker fees per each venue's published formula (rate × contracts × price × (1 − price)); contracts = stake ÷ price, rounded down to whole contracts. Fees peak at 50¢ and shrink toward the extremes. Most quoted cross-venue “arbs” are negative-EV after these fees; the taker-fee breakeven on a Kalshi/Polymarket pair is roughly 3.5–4¢.
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Data: Polymarket id 0x885a6abefad122348b4fbd503473d7fd1f9035d0438cf988a7591620f316a859 · ← All tracked markets