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PolymarketCryptoOpen

Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026?

0.4¢

last trade · closes 2027-01-01

Open on PolymarketCompare across venues

24h volume$2.4K
Open interest$171.0K
Lifetime volume$1.7M

Quick answers

Where is "Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026?" cheaper right now?
Polymarket last trade 0.4¢. No matched twin on another venue, so there is no cross-venue price to compare.
When does "Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026?" settle?
Closes 2027-01-01. Pays Yes when: This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the…

Odds history

Implied odds over timebid/askmid10.0%5.0%0.0%Oct 30 00:04 UTCNov 05 22:42 UTC

192 archived bid/ask quotes for "Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026?" on Polymarket, 2026-10-30 to 2026-11-05.

Smart money

Fills of $10,000 or more by wallets the ledger tracks, as the venue's public data API reports them: who is on which side, at what price, and the price a $100 order would pay on Polymarket now. Not a tip, and not advice.

5 tracked wallets have fills here, the biggest $29,901. Bought: No $67,585 · Yes $2.

All whale receipts →

How this market settles

Pays Yes when
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the…
Who decides
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute…
Venue’s stated source
https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT
When
Closes 2027-01-01.
Read the full rules Polymarket publishes

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Heads up: Polymarket has 8 disputed resolutions in our archive. Read the rules before you bet.

What this bet really costs you

  • On $100 at 1¢ you pay $6.93 in fees on Kalshi

    0.07¢ per contract · 10000 contracts

  • On $100 at 1¢ you pay $4.95 in fees on Polymarket US

    0.05¢ per contract · 10000 contracts

Polymarket rate read from the catalog for sports_fees_v3 (13,919 markets in a sample of 20,000 rows drawn from 270,036 in the archive). Kalshi's rate is its published general schedule; the PDF has been rate-limiting fetches, so it is documented rather than verified.

Exchange-side taker fees per each venue's published formula (rate × contracts × price × (1 − price)); contracts = stake ÷ price, rounded down to whole contracts. Fees peak at 50¢ and shrink toward the extremes. Most quoted cross-venue “arbs” are negative-EV after these fees; the taker-fee breakeven on a Kalshi/Polymarket pair is roughly 3.5–4¢.

Free channel: gaps at the next rebuild. Members: the instant one matching your watches, in your DM.

Polymarket moved 8¢ on US recession in 2026? in the last 60 minutes (12¢ → 20¢). Kalshi hasn't caught up — still sitting at 14¢.Get alerts
Members get every gap, fork and lag as the scan finds it, 35–55 minutes after the hour.
Real-time scanning costs us per scan. The 6-hour board stays free forever.

Data: Polymarket id 0xf3519e50e99fa353443d45060813453b1b717e463b5b76c306e85e8f5b026116 · ← All tracked markets

Gaps close in hours.

The free channel posts at the next rebuild; members' DMs arrive as the scan finds it.

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