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Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?

68¢−213

last trade · closes 2026-11-29

Open on PolymarketCompare across venues

24h volume$141.3K
Open interest$114.1K
Lifetime volume$1.6M

Quick answers

Where is "Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?" cheaper right now?
Polymarket last trade 68¢ (−213). No matched twin on another venue, so there is no cross-venue price to compare.
When does "Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?" settle?
Closes 2026-11-29. Pays Yes when: Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Taipei as a result of this election.

Odds history

Implied odds over timebid/askmid83%71%60%Oct 30 00:00 UTCNov 05 16:22 UTC

195 archived bid/ask quotes for "Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?" on Polymarket, 2026-10-30 to 2026-11-05.

Smart money

Fills of $10,000 or more by wallets the ledger tracks, as the venue's public data API reports them: who is on which side, at what price, and the price a $100 order would pay on Polymarket now. Not a tip, and not advice.

34 tracked wallets have fills here, the biggest $34,250. Bought: Yes $225,674 · No $17,520.

All whale receipts →

How this market settles

hard deadline June 30, 2027

Pays Yes when
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Taipei as a result of this election.
Who decides
If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
Venue’s stated source
https://db.cec.gov.tw/
When
Closes 2026-11-29.
Read the full rules Polymarket publishes

Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Taipei as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).

Heads up: Polymarket has 1 disputed resolution in our archive. Read the rules before you bet.

What this bet really costs you

  • On $100 at 68¢ you pay $2.24 in fees on Kalshi

    1.52¢ per contract · 147 contracts

  • On $100 at 68¢ you pay $1.60 in fees on Polymarket US

    1.09¢ per contract · 147 contracts

Polymarket rate read from the catalog for sports_fees_v3 (13,919 markets in a sample of 20,000 rows drawn from 260,838 in the archive). Kalshi's rate is its published general schedule; the PDF has been rate-limiting fetches, so it is documented rather than verified.

Exchange-side taker fees per each venue's published formula (rate × contracts × price × (1 − price)); contracts = stake ÷ price, rounded down to whole contracts. Fees peak at 50¢ and shrink toward the extremes. Most quoted cross-venue “arbs” are negative-EV after these fees; the taker-fee breakeven on a Kalshi/Polymarket pair is roughly 3.5–4¢.

Free channel: gaps at the next rebuild. Members: the instant one matching your watches, in your DM.

Polymarket moved 8¢ on US recession in 2026? in the last 60 minutes (12¢ → 20¢). Kalshi hasn't caught up — still sitting at 14¢.Get alerts
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Data: Polymarket id 0xbf7a9da08326512f76129d4accf9f7d852dbf1cb7dd2c512479ff40c872f5659 · ← All tracked markets

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