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Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
9¢+1011
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Quick answers
- Where is "Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?" cheaper right now?
- Polymarket last trade 9¢ (+1011). No matched twin on another venue, so there is no cross-venue price to compare.
- When does "Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?" settle?
- Closes 2028-01-01. Pays Yes when: This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
Odds history
185 archived bid/ask quotes for "Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?" on Polymarket, 2026-10-26 to 2026-11-01.
How this market settles
hard deadline December 31, 2027
- Pays Yes when
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
- Who decides
- The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
- When
- Closes 2028-01-01.
Read the full rules Polymarket publishes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Heads up: Polymarket has 4 disputed resolutions in our archive. Read the rules before you bet.
What this bet really costs you
On $100 at 9¢ you pay $6.37 in fees on Kalshi
0.57¢ per contract · 1111 contracts
On $100 at 9¢ you pay $4.55 in fees on Polymarket US
0.41¢ per contract · 1111 contracts
Polymarket rate read from the catalog for sports_fees_v3 (15,702 markets in a sample of 20,000 rows drawn from 580,600 in the archive). Kalshi's rate is its published general schedule; the PDF has been rate-limiting fetches, so it is documented rather than verified.
Exchange-side taker fees per each venue's published formula (rate × contracts × price × (1 − price)); contracts = stake ÷ price, rounded down to whole contracts. Fees peak at 50¢ and shrink toward the extremes. Most quoted cross-venue “arbs” are negative-EV after these fees; the taker-fee breakeven on a Kalshi/Polymarket pair is roughly 3.5–4¢.
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Data: Polymarket id 0xe6d5e5da83874cd82c9b651a8a5d4fc541a800a295fb62e85124b4f5a04a4b7d · ← All tracked markets