PolymarketOtherOpen
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
1.8¢
Open on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)Compare across venues
Quick answers
- Where is "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?" cheaper right now?
- Polymarket last trade 1.8¢. No matched twin on another venue, so there is no cross-venue price to compare.
- When does "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?" settle?
- Closes 2027-01-01. Pays Yes when: This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Odds history
199 archived bid/ask quotes for "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?" on Polymarket, 2026-10-26 to 2026-11-01.
How this market settles
hard deadline December 31, 2026
- Pays Yes when
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Who decides
- The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
- When
- Closes 2027-01-01.
Read the full rules Polymarket publishes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Heads up: Polymarket has 4 disputed resolutions in our archive. Read the rules before you bet.
What this bet really costs you
On $100 at 2¢ you pay $6.86 in fees on Kalshi
0.14¢ per contract · 5000 contracts
On $100 at 2¢ you pay $4.90 in fees on Polymarket US
0.10¢ per contract · 5000 contracts
Polymarket rate read from the catalog for sports_fees_v3 (15,702 markets in a sample of 20,000 rows drawn from 580,600 in the archive). Kalshi's rate is its published general schedule; the PDF has been rate-limiting fetches, so it is documented rather than verified.
Exchange-side taker fees per each venue's published formula (rate × contracts × price × (1 − price)); contracts = stake ÷ price, rounded down to whole contracts. Fees peak at 50¢ and shrink toward the extremes. Most quoted cross-venue “arbs” are negative-EV after these fees; the taker-fee breakeven on a Kalshi/Polymarket pair is roughly 3.5–4¢.
Free channel: gaps at the next rebuild. Members: the instant one matching your watches, in your DM.
Get alerts (opens in a new tab)Why the board stays free
Data: Polymarket id 0xd9fb1184af0064e5e34b129f5b79afa5a17b7e32f2953ab05efed82315fee6d4 · ← All tracked markets