PolymarketOtherOpen
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?
17¢+488
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Quick answers
- Where is "Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?" cheaper right now?
- Polymarket last trade 17¢ (+488). No matched twin on another venue, so there is no cross-venue price to compare.
- When does "Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?" settle?
- Closes 2027-01-01. Pays Yes when: This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day after market creation, the official daily high price published by the CME Group for the Active Month (front month) of CME Crude Oil (CL) futures is greater than $147.27 by the final…
Odds history
198 archived bid/ask quotes for "Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?" on Polymarket, 2026-10-26 to 2026-11-01.
How this market settles
- Pays Yes when
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day after market creation, the official daily high price published by the CME Group for the Active Month (front month) of CME Crude Oil (CL) futures is greater than $147.27 by the final…
- Who decides
- The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website (https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html) — specifically, the daily "High" prices for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
- Venue’s stated source
- https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html
- When
- Closes 2027-01-01.
Read the full rules Polymarket publishes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day after market creation, the official daily high price published by the CME Group for the Active Month (front month) of CME Crude Oil (CL) futures is greater than $147.27 by the final trading day on or before the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example, if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration. This market will resolve as soon as a high price greater than the listed value is published, or once finalized data for the final trading day of the specified time period is published and a high price greater than $147.27 has not been achieved. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website (https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html) — specifically, the daily "High" prices for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures. If finalized data for the final trading day of the specified time period has not been published on the CME Group website within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the data published through all CME Group channels up to that point.
Heads up: Polymarket has 4 disputed resolutions in our archive. Read the rules before you bet.
What this bet really costs you
On $100 at 17¢ you pay $5.81 in fees on Kalshi
0.99¢ per contract · 588 contracts
On $100 at 17¢ you pay $4.15 in fees on Polymarket US
0.71¢ per contract · 588 contracts
Polymarket rate read from the catalog for sports_fees_v3 (15,702 markets in a sample of 20,000 rows drawn from 580,600 in the archive). Kalshi's rate is its published general schedule; the PDF has been rate-limiting fetches, so it is documented rather than verified.
Exchange-side taker fees per each venue's published formula (rate × contracts × price × (1 − price)); contracts = stake ÷ price, rounded down to whole contracts. Fees peak at 50¢ and shrink toward the extremes. Most quoted cross-venue “arbs” are negative-EV after these fees; the taker-fee breakeven on a Kalshi/Polymarket pair is roughly 3.5–4¢.
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