Kalshi market · CONTROLS-2026-D
Will Democrats win the U.S. Senate in 2026?
| Last trade | 24h volume | Lifetime volume | Open interest | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 59¢ | $22.1K | $4.1M | $2.1M | 2027-02-01 |
Prices in cents per $1 contract; volumes in USD. Last trade is the most recent value our archive holds for this market.
What are the current odds for Will Democrats win the U.S. Senate in 2026??
The Kalshi market “Will Democrats win the U.S. Senate in 2026?” is currently priced at 59¢ (59.0%), its last trade, and closes 2027-02-01.
Odds history
bid/ask spreadmidtrade (yes)trade (no)
How this market settles
The exact settlement rules Kalshi publishes for this market — the fine print that decides who gets paid:
If the Democratic Party has won control of the U.S. Senate in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market may be determined early based on a consensus of media calls projecting control of the U.S. Senate. See full rules for details. Otherwise, victory will be determined by the party identification of the President pro tempore of the Senate on February 1, 2027.
What this bet really costs you
| Venue | Fee per contract | Total taker fee |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 1.69¢ | $1.69 |
| Polymarket US | 1.45¢ | $1.45 |
Exchange-side taker fees per each venue's published formula (rate × contracts × price × (1 − price), Kalshi rounds the order total up to the next cent). Fees peak at 50¢ and shrink toward the extremes. Most quoted cross-venue “arbs” are negative-EV after these fees — the taker-fee breakeven on a Kalshi/Polymarket pair is roughly 3.5–4¢.
Also trading on Polymarket
Our matcher links this market to the same event on Polymarket, last archived at 3.9¢ mid. Spread between the venues: 55.6¢; after estimated round-trip taker fees: 51.8¢.