PolymarketOtherOpen

Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

0.1¢

last trade · closes 2026-12-31

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24h volume$1.1K
Open interest$156.1K
Lifetime volume$3.1M

Quick answers

Where is "Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?" cheaper right now?
Polymarket last trade 0.1¢. No matched twin on another venue, so there is no cross-venue price to compare.
When does "Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?" settle?
Closes 2026-12-31. Pays Yes when: This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.

Odds history

Implied odds over timebid/askmid10.0%5.0%0.0%Oct 26 00:05 UTCNov 01 21:57 UTC

200 archived bid/ask quotes for "Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?" on Polymarket, 2026-10-26 to 2026-11-01.

How this market settles

Pays Yes when
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.
Who decides
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela.
Venue’s stated source
https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa
When
Closes 2026-12-31.
Read the full rules Polymarket publishes

This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela. If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa). In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position. If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself. The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: this market is mutually exclusive.

Heads up: Polymarket has 4 disputed resolutions in our archive. Read the rules before you bet.

What this bet really costs you

  • On $100 at 1¢ you pay $6.93 in fees on Kalshi

    0.07¢ per contract · 10000 contracts

  • On $100 at 1¢ you pay $4.95 in fees on Polymarket US

    0.05¢ per contract · 10000 contracts

Polymarket rate read from the catalog for sports_fees_v3 (15,702 markets in a sample of 20,000 rows drawn from 580,600 in the archive). Kalshi's rate is its published general schedule; the PDF has been rate-limiting fetches, so it is documented rather than verified.

Exchange-side taker fees per each venue's published formula (rate × contracts × price × (1 − price)); contracts = stake ÷ price, rounded down to whole contracts. Fees peak at 50¢ and shrink toward the extremes. Most quoted cross-venue “arbs” are negative-EV after these fees; the taker-fee breakeven on a Kalshi/Polymarket pair is roughly 3.5–4¢.

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Data: Polymarket id 0x86a2f168603fae962d925c91b23fba47c0c7436a240056785de25e998bc30811 · ← All tracked markets

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