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Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

72¢−257

last trade · closes 2026-10-05

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24h volume$118.3K
Open interest$115.6K
Lifetime volume$1.7M

Quick answers

Where is "Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?" cheaper right now?
Polymarket last trade 72¢ (−257). No matched twin on another venue, so there is no cross-venue price to compare.
When does "Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?" settle?
Closes 2026-10-05. Pays Yes when: A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.

Odds history

Implied odds over timebid/askmid83%72%62%Sep 27 00:18 UTCOct 03 21:54 UTC

199 archived bid/ask quotes for "Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?" on Polymarket, 2026-09-27 to 2026-10-03.

Smart money

Fills of $10,000 or more by wallets the ledger tracks, as the venue's public data API reports them: who is on which side, at what price, and the price a $100 order would pay on Polymarket now. Not a tip, and not advice.

22 tracked wallets have fills here, the biggest $49,422. Bought: Yes $385,841 · No $7,175.

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How this market settles

hard deadline June 30, 2027

Pays Yes when
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
Who decides
If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g.,…
When
Closes 2026-10-05.
Read the full rules Polymarket publishes

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

What this bet really costs you

  • On $100 at 72¢ you pay $1.95 in fees on Kalshi

    1.41¢ per contract · 138 contracts

  • On $100 at 72¢ you pay $1.39 in fees on Polymarket US

    1.01¢ per contract · 138 contracts

Polymarket rate read from the catalog for sports_fees_v3 (12,806 markets in a sample of 20,000 rows drawn from 22,818,833 in the archive). Kalshi's rate is its published general schedule; the PDF has been rate-limiting fetches, so it is documented rather than verified.

Exchange-side taker fees per each venue's published formula (rate × contracts × price × (1 − price)); contracts = stake ÷ price, rounded down to whole contracts. Fees peak at 50¢ and shrink toward the extremes. Most quoted cross-venue “arbs” are negative-EV after these fees; the taker-fee breakeven on a Kalshi/Polymarket pair is roughly 3.5–4¢.

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Polymarket moved 8¢ on US recession in 2026? in the last 60 minutes (12¢ → 20¢). Kalshi hasn't caught up — still sitting at 14¢.Get alerts
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Data: Polymarket id 0x6114306f724135bd1db2f5f3169386decf18f618653c196ef0a6c1afd27f4c73 · ← All tracked markets

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