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Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election?
0.1¢
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Quick answers
- Where is "Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election?" cheaper right now?
- Polymarket last trade 0.1¢. No matched twin on another venue, so there is no cross-venue price to compare.
- When does "Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election?" settle?
- Closes 2027-04-19. Pays Yes when: The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current…
Odds history
200 archived bid/ask quotes for "Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election?" on Polymarket, 2026-10-26 to 2026-11-01.
How this market settles
hard deadline December 31, 2027
- Pays Yes when
- The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current…
- Who decides
- This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
- Venue’s stated source
- https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/
- When
- Closes 2027-04-19.
Read the full rules Polymarket publishes
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Heads up: Polymarket has 4 disputed resolutions in our archive. Read the rules before you bet.
What this bet really costs you
On $100 at 1¢ you pay $6.93 in fees on Kalshi
0.07¢ per contract · 10000 contracts
On $100 at 1¢ you pay $4.95 in fees on Polymarket US
0.05¢ per contract · 10000 contracts
Polymarket rate read from the catalog for sports_fees_v3 (15,702 markets in a sample of 20,000 rows drawn from 580,600 in the archive). Kalshi's rate is its published general schedule; the PDF has been rate-limiting fetches, so it is documented rather than verified.
Exchange-side taker fees per each venue's published formula (rate × contracts × price × (1 − price)); contracts = stake ÷ price, rounded down to whole contracts. Fees peak at 50¢ and shrink toward the extremes. Most quoted cross-venue “arbs” are negative-EV after these fees; the taker-fee breakeven on a Kalshi/Polymarket pair is roughly 3.5–4¢.
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Data: Polymarket id 0xf39142681d979d4987625065e294cac48bc92ad92356b18f28d57a3fd3f0a316 · ← All tracked markets