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Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?

5¢+1900

last trade · closes 2027-01-01

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24h volume$32
Open interest$35.0K
Lifetime volume$1.8M

Quick answers

Where is "Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?" cheaper right now?
Polymarket last trade 5¢ (+1900). No matched twin on another venue, so there is no cross-venue price to compare.
When does "Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?" settle?
Closes 2027-01-01. Pays Yes when: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Odds history

Implied odds over timebid/askmid14%7%0%Oct 30 00:04 UTCNov 05 22:42 UTC

192 archived bid/ask quotes for "Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?" on Polymarket, 2026-10-30 to 2026-11-05.

Smart money

Fills of $10,000 or more by wallets the ledger tracks, as the venue's public data API reports them: who is on which side, at what price, and the price a $100 order would pay on Polymarket now. Not a tip, and not advice.

46 tracked wallets have fills here, the biggest $8,318. Bought: Yes $70,688 · No $37,351.

All whale receipts →

How this market settles

hard deadline December 31, 2026

Pays Yes when
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Who decides
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
When
Closes 2027-01-01.
Read the full rules Polymarket publishes

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify. For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip. Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process. Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered. Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.

Heads up: Polymarket has 8 disputed resolutions in our archive. Read the rules before you bet.

What this bet really costs you

  • On $100 at 5¢ you pay $6.65 in fees on Kalshi

    0.33¢ per contract · 2000 contracts

  • On $100 at 5¢ you pay $4.75 in fees on Polymarket US

    0.24¢ per contract · 2000 contracts

Polymarket rate read from the catalog for sports_fees_v3 (13,919 markets in a sample of 20,000 rows drawn from 270,036 in the archive). Kalshi's rate is its published general schedule; the PDF has been rate-limiting fetches, so it is documented rather than verified.

Exchange-side taker fees per each venue's published formula (rate × contracts × price × (1 − price)); contracts = stake ÷ price, rounded down to whole contracts. Fees peak at 50¢ and shrink toward the extremes. Most quoted cross-venue “arbs” are negative-EV after these fees; the taker-fee breakeven on a Kalshi/Polymarket pair is roughly 3.5–4¢.

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Polymarket moved 8¢ on US recession in 2026? in the last 60 minutes (12¢ → 20¢). Kalshi hasn't caught up — still sitting at 14¢.Get alerts
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