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Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
38.2¢+162
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Quick answers
- Where is "Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?" cheaper right now?
- Polymarket last trade 38.2¢ (+162). No matched twin on another venue, so there is no cross-venue price to compare.
- When does "Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?" settle?
- Closes 2028-11-08. Pays Yes when: This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president.
Odds history
200 archived bid/ask quotes for "Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?" on Polymarket, 2026-10-26 to 2026-11-01.
How this market settles
- Pays Yes when
- This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president.
- Who decides
- The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.
- When
- Closes 2028-11-08.
Read the full rules Polymarket publishes
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Heads up: Polymarket has 4 disputed resolutions in our archive. Read the rules before you bet.
What this bet really costs you
On $100 at 38¢ you pay $4.34 in fees on Kalshi
1.65¢ per contract · 263 contracts
On $100 at 38¢ you pay $3.10 in fees on Polymarket US
1.18¢ per contract · 263 contracts
Polymarket rate read from the catalog for sports_fees_v3 (15,702 markets in a sample of 20,000 rows drawn from 580,600 in the archive). Kalshi's rate is its published general schedule; the PDF has been rate-limiting fetches, so it is documented rather than verified.
Exchange-side taker fees per each venue's published formula (rate × contracts × price × (1 − price)); contracts = stake ÷ price, rounded down to whole contracts. Fees peak at 50¢ and shrink toward the extremes. Most quoted cross-venue “arbs” are negative-EV after these fees; the taker-fee breakeven on a Kalshi/Polymarket pair is roughly 3.5–4¢.
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Data: Polymarket id 0x18b1c135d0a40c5894da9412e77311827d9caf16cf4cd6591b247a34730af919 · ← All tracked markets