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Will John N. Kennedy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

0.3¢

last trade · closes 2028-11-08

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24h volume$5.1K
Open interest$159.3K
Lifetime volume$2.1M

Quick answers

Where is "Will John N. Kennedy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?" cheaper right now?
Polymarket last trade 0.3¢. No matched twin on another venue, so there is no cross-venue price to compare.
When does "Will John N. Kennedy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?" settle?
Closes 2028-11-08. Pays Yes when: This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president.

Odds history

Implied odds over timebid/askmid10.0%5.0%0.0%Oct 30 00:00 UTCNov 05 16:22 UTC

189 archived bid/ask quotes for "Will John N. Kennedy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?" on Polymarket, 2026-10-30 to 2026-11-05.

Smart money

Fills of $10,000 or more by wallets the ledger tracks, as the venue's public data API reports them: who is on which side, at what price, and the price a $100 order would pay on Polymarket now. Not a tip, and not advice.

5 tracked wallets have fills here, the biggest $19,980. Bought: No $36,214 · Yes $250.

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How this market settles

Pays Yes when
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president.
Who decides
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.
When
Closes 2028-11-08.
Read the full rules Polymarket publishes

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Heads up: Polymarket has 1 disputed resolution in our archive. Read the rules before you bet.

What this bet really costs you

  • On $100 at 1¢ you pay $6.93 in fees on Kalshi

    0.07¢ per contract · 10000 contracts

  • On $100 at 1¢ you pay $4.95 in fees on Polymarket US

    0.05¢ per contract · 10000 contracts

Polymarket rate read from the catalog for sports_fees_v3 (13,919 markets in a sample of 20,000 rows drawn from 260,838 in the archive). Kalshi's rate is its published general schedule; the PDF has been rate-limiting fetches, so it is documented rather than verified.

Exchange-side taker fees per each venue's published formula (rate × contracts × price × (1 − price)); contracts = stake ÷ price, rounded down to whole contracts. Fees peak at 50¢ and shrink toward the extremes. Most quoted cross-venue “arbs” are negative-EV after these fees; the taker-fee breakeven on a Kalshi/Polymarket pair is roughly 3.5–4¢.

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Data: Polymarket id 0x8aff3e755f44bfea1baa433b2a175341204b0f85427e82f31c9c44d38b5a6ec7 · ← All tracked markets

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