PolymarketPoliticsOpenResolved No
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
0.6¢
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Quick answers
- Where is "Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?" cheaper right now?
- Polymarket last trade 0.6¢. No matched twin on another venue, so there is no cross-venue price to compare.
- When does "Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?" settle?
- Already settled: resolved No on 2026-10-31.
Odds history
193 archived bid/ask quotes for "Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?" on Polymarket, 2026-10-26 to 2026-10-31.
How this market settles
hard deadline October 31, 2027
- Pays Yes when
- Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
- Who decides
- If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit)…
- Venue’s stated source
- https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page
- When
- Closes 2026-10-28.
Read the full rules Polymarket publishes
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Heads up: Polymarket has 4 disputed resolutions in our archive. Read the rules before you bet.
Resolution
Resolved No on 2026-10-31.
What this bet really costs you
On $100 at 1¢ you pay $6.93 in fees on Kalshi
0.07¢ per contract · 10000 contracts
On $100 at 1¢ you pay $4.95 in fees on Polymarket US
0.05¢ per contract · 10000 contracts
Polymarket rate read from the catalog for sports_fees_v3 (15,702 markets in a sample of 20,000 rows drawn from 580,600 in the archive). Kalshi's rate is its published general schedule; the PDF has been rate-limiting fetches, so it is documented rather than verified.
Exchange-side taker fees per each venue's published formula (rate × contracts × price × (1 − price)); contracts = stake ÷ price, rounded down to whole contracts. Fees peak at 50¢ and shrink toward the extremes. Most quoted cross-venue “arbs” are negative-EV after these fees; the taker-fee breakeven on a Kalshi/Polymarket pair is roughly 3.5–4¢.
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Data: Polymarket id 0xc855714184ac46005a7897c68f274147f0abf1fde791421541edb065fa65a1e4 · ← All tracked markets