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Will Marion Maréchal win the 2027 French presidential election?

0.1¢

last trade · closes 2027-04-19

Open on PolymarketCompare across venues

24h volume$19.0K
Open interest$408.8K
Lifetime volume$1.0M

Quick answers

Where is "Will Marion Maréchal win the 2027 French presidential election?" cheaper right now?
Polymarket last trade 0.1¢. No matched twin on another venue, so there is no cross-venue price to compare.
When does "Will Marion Maréchal win the 2027 French presidential election?" settle?
Closes 2027-04-19. Pays Yes when: The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current…

Odds history

Implied odds over timebid/askmid10.0%5.0%0.0%Oct 30 00:20 UTCNov 05 16:20 UTC

176 archived bid/ask quotes for "Will Marion Maréchal win the 2027 French presidential election?" on Polymarket, 2026-10-30 to 2026-11-05.

Smart money

Fills of $10,000 or more by wallets the ledger tracks, as the venue's public data API reports them: who is on which side, at what price, and the price a $100 order would pay on Polymarket now. Not a tip, and not advice.

2 tracked wallets have fills here, the biggest $0.

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How this market settles

hard deadline December 31, 2027

Pays Yes when
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current…
Who decides
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Venue’s stated source
https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/
When
Closes 2027-04-19.
Read the full rules Polymarket publishes

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).

Heads up: Polymarket has 1 disputed resolution in our archive. Read the rules before you bet.

What this bet really costs you

  • On $100 at 1¢ you pay $6.93 in fees on Kalshi

    0.07¢ per contract · 10000 contracts

  • On $100 at 1¢ you pay $4.95 in fees on Polymarket US

    0.05¢ per contract · 10000 contracts

Polymarket rate read from the catalog for sports_fees_v3 (13,919 markets in a sample of 20,000 rows drawn from 260,838 in the archive). Kalshi's rate is its published general schedule; the PDF has been rate-limiting fetches, so it is documented rather than verified.

Exchange-side taker fees per each venue's published formula (rate × contracts × price × (1 − price)); contracts = stake ÷ price, rounded down to whole contracts. Fees peak at 50¢ and shrink toward the extremes. Most quoted cross-venue “arbs” are negative-EV after these fees; the taker-fee breakeven on a Kalshi/Polymarket pair is roughly 3.5–4¢.

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Polymarket moved 8¢ on US recession in 2026? in the last 60 minutes (12¢ → 20¢). Kalshi hasn't caught up — still sitting at 14¢.Get alerts
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Data: Polymarket id 0xf9f40504425133cce159883ca3eaf376a815ab1ae763086ae8e4a3f5eacea479 · ← All tracked markets

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