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PolymarketOtherOpenResolved Yes

Will Portugal win on 2026-10-04?

99.9¢

last trade · resolved 2026-10-04

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24h volume$3.5M
Open interest$2.5M
Lifetime volume$3.5M

Quick answers

Where is "Will Portugal win on 2026-10-04?" cheaper right now?
Polymarket last trade 99.9¢. No matched twin on another venue, so there is no cross-venue price to compare.
When does "Will Portugal win on 2026-10-04?" settle?
Already settled: resolved Yes on 2026-10-04.

Odds history

Implied odds over timebid/askmid100%73%45%Sep 29 00:21 UTCOct 04 22:42 UTC

195 archived bid/ask quotes for "Will Portugal win on 2026-10-04?" on Polymarket, 2026-09-29 to 2026-10-04.

Smart money

Fills of $10,000 or more by wallets the ledger tracks, as the venue's public data API reports them: who is on which side, at what price, and the price a $100 order would pay on Polymarket now. Not a tip, and not advice.

46 tracked wallets have fills here, the biggest $1,189,416. Bought: Yes $2,035,230 · No $452,525.

All whale receipts →

How this market settles

Pays Yes when
In the upcoming game, scheduled for October 4, 2026 If Portugal wins, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Who decides
The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers.
Venue’s stated source
https://www.uefa.com/uefanationsleague/
When
Closes 2026-10-04.
Read the full rules Polymarket publishes

In the upcoming game, scheduled for October 4, 2026 If Portugal wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.

Heads up: Polymarket has 2 disputed resolutions in our archive. Read the rules before you bet.

Resolution

Resolved Yes on 2026-10-04.

What this bet really costs you

  • On $100 at 99¢ you pay $0.07 in fees on Kalshi

    0.07¢ per contract · 101 contracts

  • On $100 at 99¢ you pay $0.05 in fees on Polymarket US

    0.05¢ per contract · 101 contracts

Polymarket rate read from the catalog for sports_fees_v3 (12,837 markets in a sample of 20,000 rows drawn from 13,959,065 in the archive). Kalshi's rate is its published general schedule; the PDF has been rate-limiting fetches, so it is documented rather than verified.

Exchange-side taker fees per each venue's published formula (rate × contracts × price × (1 − price)); contracts = stake ÷ price, rounded down to whole contracts. Fees peak at 50¢ and shrink toward the extremes. Most quoted cross-venue “arbs” are negative-EV after these fees; the taker-fee breakeven on a Kalshi/Polymarket pair is roughly 3.5–4¢.

Free channel: gaps at the next rebuild. Members: the instant one matching your watches, in your DM.

Polymarket moved 8¢ on US recession in 2026? in the last 60 minutes (12¢ → 20¢). Kalshi hasn't caught up — still sitting at 14¢.Get alerts
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Data: Polymarket id 0x72a1fadcd0ebf038c834a34475923d44aa52d5b3c737112880b72c36ed9afcfd · ← All tracked markets

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