KalshiPoliticsActive
Will Rand Paul be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?
0.4¢
Odds history
How this market settles
- Pays Yes when
- If Rand Paul wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Who decides
- This market will close after Republican nominates an individual for the Presidency and they accept that nomination.
- When
- Closes 2028-11-07.
Read the full rules Kalshi publishes
If Rand Paul wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
What this bet really costs you
On $100 at 1¢ you pay $6.94 in fees on Kalshi
0.07¢ per contract · 10000 contracts
On $100 at 1¢ you pay $5.94 in fees on Polymarket US
0.06¢ per contract · 10000 contracts
Exchange-side taker fees per each venue's published formula (rate × contracts × price × (1 − price)); contracts = stake ÷ price, rounded down to whole contracts. Fees peak at 50¢ and shrink toward the extremes. Most quoted cross-venue “arbs” are negative-EV after these fees; the taker-fee breakeven on a Kalshi/Polymarket pair is roughly 3.5–4¢.
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Polymarket moved 8¢ on US recession in 2026? in the last 60 minutes (12¢ → 20¢). Kalshi hasn't caught up — still sitting at 14¢.
Get alerts (opens in a new tab)Data: Kalshi id KXPRESNOMR-28-RPAU · ← All tracked markets