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PolymarketPoliticsOpen

Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

1.1¢

last trade · closes 2028-11-08

Open on PolymarketCompare across venues

24h volume$21.5K
Open interest$482.6K
Lifetime volume$1.4M

Quick answers

Where is "Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 US Presidential Election?" cheaper right now?
Polymarket last trade 1.1¢. No matched twin on another venue, so there is no cross-venue price to compare.
When does "Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 US Presidential Election?" settle?
Closes 2028-11-08. Pays Yes when: The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.

Odds history

Implied odds over timebid/askmid10.0%5.0%0.0%Oct 30 00:00 UTCNov 05 16:22 UTC

175 archived bid/ask quotes for "Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 US Presidential Election?" on Polymarket, 2026-10-30 to 2026-11-05.

Smart money

Fills of $10,000 or more by wallets the ledger tracks, as the venue's public data API reports them: who is on which side, at what price, and the price a $100 order would pay on Polymarket now. Not a tip, and not advice.

10 tracked wallets have fills here, the biggest $455. Bought: Yes $784.

All whale receipts →

How this market settles

Pays Yes when
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election.
Who decides
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC.
When
Closes 2028-11-08.
Read the full rules Polymarket publishes

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

Heads up: Polymarket has 1 disputed resolution in our archive. Read the rules before you bet.

What this bet really costs you

  • On $100 at 1¢ you pay $6.93 in fees on Kalshi

    0.07¢ per contract · 10000 contracts

  • On $100 at 1¢ you pay $4.95 in fees on Polymarket US

    0.05¢ per contract · 10000 contracts

Polymarket rate read from the catalog for sports_fees_v3 (13,919 markets in a sample of 20,000 rows drawn from 260,838 in the archive). Kalshi's rate is its published general schedule; the PDF has been rate-limiting fetches, so it is documented rather than verified.

Exchange-side taker fees per each venue's published formula (rate × contracts × price × (1 − price)); contracts = stake ÷ price, rounded down to whole contracts. Fees peak at 50¢ and shrink toward the extremes. Most quoted cross-venue “arbs” are negative-EV after these fees; the taker-fee breakeven on a Kalshi/Polymarket pair is roughly 3.5–4¢.

Free channel: gaps at the next rebuild. Members: the instant one matching your watches, in your DM.

Polymarket moved 8¢ on US recession in 2026? in the last 60 minutes (12¢ → 20¢). Kalshi hasn't caught up — still sitting at 14¢.Get alerts
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Data: Polymarket id 0xca573b66cfbc4b3053c59d4e29dfa484a2aa31ce83ab5174f1ef58376a8662a7 · ← All tracked markets

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The free channel posts at the next rebuild; members' DMs arrive as the scan finds it.

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