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Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

0.8¢

last trade · closes 2026-12-31

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24h volume$1.6K
Open interest$126.0K
Lifetime volume$729.3K

Quick answers

Where is "Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?" cheaper right now?
Polymarket last trade 0.8¢. No matched twin on another venue, so there is no cross-venue price to compare.
When does "Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?" settle?
Closes 2026-12-31. Pays Yes when: This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

Odds history

Implied odds over timebid/askmid10.0%5.0%0.0%Oct 30 00:05 UTCNov 05 16:22 UTC

194 archived bid/ask quotes for "Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?" on Polymarket, 2026-10-30 to 2026-11-05.

Smart money

Fills of $10,000 or more by wallets the ledger tracks, as the venue's public data API reports them: who is on which side, at what price, and the price a $100 order would pay on Polymarket now. Not a tip, and not advice.

18 tracked wallets have fills here, the biggest $7,779. Bought: No $16,864.

All whale receipts →

How this market settles

Pays Yes when
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
Who decides
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
When
Closes 2026-12-31.
Read the full rules Polymarket publishes

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.

Heads up: Polymarket has 1 disputed resolution in our archive. Read the rules before you bet.

What this bet really costs you

  • On $100 at 1¢ you pay $6.93 in fees on Kalshi

    0.07¢ per contract · 10000 contracts

  • On $100 at 1¢ you pay $4.95 in fees on Polymarket US

    0.05¢ per contract · 10000 contracts

Polymarket rate read from the catalog for sports_fees_v3 (13,919 markets in a sample of 20,000 rows drawn from 260,838 in the archive). Kalshi's rate is its published general schedule; the PDF has been rate-limiting fetches, so it is documented rather than verified.

Exchange-side taker fees per each venue's published formula (rate × contracts × price × (1 − price)); contracts = stake ÷ price, rounded down to whole contracts. Fees peak at 50¢ and shrink toward the extremes. Most quoted cross-venue “arbs” are negative-EV after these fees; the taker-fee breakeven on a Kalshi/Polymarket pair is roughly 3.5–4¢.

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Polymarket moved 8¢ on US recession in 2026? in the last 60 minutes (12¢ → 20¢). Kalshi hasn't caught up — still sitting at 14¢.Get alerts
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Data: Polymarket id 0xe6eb21883f57c3047cf7be1d7cff4554fbb82067e374bd07c53242170f57851f · ← All tracked markets

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