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Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
3.1¢+3126
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Quick answers
- Where is "Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?" cheaper right now?
- Polymarket last trade 3.1¢ (+3126). No matched twin on another venue, so there is no cross-venue price to compare.
- When does "Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?" settle?
- Closes 2027-01-01. Pays Yes when: If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Odds history
201 archived bid/ask quotes for "Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?" on Polymarket, 2026-10-26 to 2026-11-01.
How this market settles
- Pays Yes when
- If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes".
- Who decides
- The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
- When
- Closes 2027-01-01.
Read the full rules Polymarket publishes
If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Heads up: Polymarket has 4 disputed resolutions in our archive. Read the rules before you bet.
What this bet really costs you
On $100 at 3¢ you pay $6.79 in fees on Kalshi
0.20¢ per contract · 3333 contracts
On $100 at 3¢ you pay $4.85 in fees on Polymarket US
0.15¢ per contract · 3333 contracts
Polymarket rate read from the catalog for sports_fees_v3 (15,702 markets in a sample of 20,000 rows drawn from 580,600 in the archive). Kalshi's rate is its published general schedule; the PDF has been rate-limiting fetches, so it is documented rather than verified.
Exchange-side taker fees per each venue's published formula (rate × contracts × price × (1 − price)); contracts = stake ÷ price, rounded down to whole contracts. Fees peak at 50¢ and shrink toward the extremes. Most quoted cross-venue “arbs” are negative-EV after these fees; the taker-fee breakeven on a Kalshi/Polymarket pair is roughly 3.5–4¢.
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Data: Polymarket id 0x2f224fca80a6a6b3a2a200406473fc8b33da6bcf5af83dc3fe9021a541c0519d · ← All tracked markets