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Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
2.9¢
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Quick answers
- Where is "Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?" cheaper right now?
- Polymarket last trade 2.9¢. No matched twin on another venue, so there is no cross-venue price to compare.
- When does "Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?" settle?
- Closes 2027-01-01. Pays Yes when: This market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction at any time between January 9, 2026, 1:00 PM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM…
Odds history
195 archived bid/ask quotes for "Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?" on Polymarket, 2026-10-26 to 2026-11-01.
How this market settles
- Pays Yes when
- This market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction at any time between January 9, 2026, 1:00 PM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM…
- Who decides
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto If…
- Venue’s stated source
- https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto
- When
- Closes 2027-01-01.
Read the full rules Polymarket publishes
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction at any time between January 9, 2026, 1:00 PM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto If Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources.
Heads up: Polymarket has 4 disputed resolutions in our archive. Read the rules before you bet.
What this bet really costs you
On $100 at 3¢ you pay $6.79 in fees on Kalshi
0.20¢ per contract · 3333 contracts
On $100 at 3¢ you pay $4.85 in fees on Polymarket US
0.15¢ per contract · 3333 contracts
Polymarket rate read from the catalog for sports_fees_v3 (15,702 markets in a sample of 20,000 rows drawn from 580,600 in the archive). Kalshi's rate is its published general schedule; the PDF has been rate-limiting fetches, so it is documented rather than verified.
Exchange-side taker fees per each venue's published formula (rate × contracts × price × (1 − price)); contracts = stake ÷ price, rounded down to whole contracts. Fees peak at 50¢ and shrink toward the extremes. Most quoted cross-venue “arbs” are negative-EV after these fees; the taker-fee breakeven on a Kalshi/Polymarket pair is roughly 3.5–4¢.
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Data: Polymarket id 0x3b0107a80edd066fe987784d7ab5963c177888433efbec10689951c17320606c · ← All tracked markets