manekineko
Yes · Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31?
$8 at 2.5¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 2.5¢ pays $4,000
PolymarketOtherOpen
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31?
1.1¢
Open on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)Compare across venues
24h volume$790
Open interest$18.3K
Lifetime volume$941.1K
Quick answers
- Where is "Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31?" cheaper right now?
- Polymarket last trade 1.1¢. No matched twin on another venue, so there is no cross-venue price to compare.
- When does "Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31?" settle?
- Closes 2027-01-01. Pays Yes when: This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator or creators of Bitcoin, is definitively proven between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
Odds history
176 archived bid/ask quotes for "Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31?" on Polymarket, 2026-10-30 to 2026-11-05.
Smart money
What smart money means here
Fills of $10,000 or more by wallets the ledger tracks, as the venue's public data API reports them: who is on which side, at what price, and the price a $100 order would pay on Polymarket now. Not a tip, and not advice.
1 tracked wallet has fills here, the biggest $8. Bought: Yes $8.
How this market settles
- Pays Yes when
- This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator or creators of Bitcoin, is definitively proven between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Who decides
- The resolution source for this market will be definitive evidence confirming the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, such as a transfer from one of the original Satoshi wallets.
- When
- Closes 2027-01-01.
Read the full rules Polymarket publishes
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator or creators of Bitcoin, is definitively proven between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'. The resolution source for this market will be definitive evidence confirming the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, such as a transfer from one of the original Satoshi wallets. However, a credible consensus of reporting will also be used.
Heads up: Polymarket has 1 disputed resolution in our archive. Read the rules before you bet.
What this bet really costs you
On $100 at 1¢ you pay $6.93 in fees on Kalshi
0.07¢ per contract · 10000 contracts
On $100 at 1¢ you pay $4.95 in fees on Polymarket US
0.05¢ per contract · 10000 contracts
Polymarket rate read from the catalog for sports_fees_v3 (13,919 markets in a sample of 20,000 rows drawn from 260,838 in the archive). Kalshi's rate is its published general schedule; the PDF has been rate-limiting fetches, so it is documented rather than verified.
Exchange-side taker fees per each venue's published formula (rate × contracts × price × (1 − price)); contracts = stake ÷ price, rounded down to whole contracts. Fees peak at 50¢ and shrink toward the extremes. Most quoted cross-venue “arbs” are negative-EV after these fees; the taker-fee breakeven on a Kalshi/Polymarket pair is roughly 3.5–4¢.
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Data: Polymarket id 0x002800d1a67d94f592d5d3ccfd985065a31f9869a006f1855ca2f544c965733c · ← All tracked markets