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Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series?

20.6¢+385

last trade · closes 2026-10-31

Open on PolymarketCompare across venues

24h volume$118.9K
Open interest$113.2K
Lifetime volume$1.6M

Quick answers

Where is "Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series?" cheaper right now?
Polymarket last trade 20.6¢ (+385). No matched twin on another venue, so there is no cross-venue price to compare.
When does "Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series?" settle?
Closes 2026-10-31. Pays Yes when: This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026 MLB World Series.

Odds history

Implied odds over timebid/askmid26%13%1%Oct 10 00:11 UTCOct 16 12:02 UTC

196 archived bid/ask quotes for "Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series?" on Polymarket, 2026-10-10 to 2026-10-16.

Smart money

Fills of $10,000 or more by wallets the ledger tracks, as the venue's public data API reports them: who is on which side, at what price, and the price a $100 order would pay on Polymarket now. Not a tip, and not advice.

11 tracked wallets have fills here, the biggest $14,297. Bought: No $120,281 · Yes $6,346.

All whale receipts →

How this market settles

Pays Yes when
This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026 MLB World Series.
Who decides
The primary resolution source will be official information from MLB (https://www.mlb.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Venue’s stated source
https://www.mlb.com/
When
Closes 2026-10-31.
Read the full rules Polymarket publishes

This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026 MLB World Series. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 MLB World Series per the rules of MLB (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026 ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from MLB (https://www.mlb.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Heads up: Polymarket has 1 disputed resolution in our archive. Read the rules before you bet.

What this bet really costs you

  • On $100 at 21¢ you pay $5.53 in fees on Kalshi

    1.16¢ per contract · 476 contracts

  • On $100 at 21¢ you pay $3.95 in fees on Polymarket US

    0.83¢ per contract · 476 contracts

Polymarket rate read from the catalog for sports_fees_v3 (9,964 markets in a sample of 20,000 rows drawn from 521,299 in the archive). Kalshi's rate is its published general schedule; the PDF has been rate-limiting fetches, so it is documented rather than verified.

Exchange-side taker fees per each venue's published formula (rate × contracts × price × (1 − price)); contracts = stake ÷ price, rounded down to whole contracts. Fees peak at 50¢ and shrink toward the extremes. Most quoted cross-venue “arbs” are negative-EV after these fees; the taker-fee breakeven on a Kalshi/Polymarket pair is roughly 3.5–4¢.

Free channel: gaps at the next rebuild. Members: the instant one matching your watches, in your DM.

Polymarket moved 8¢ on US recession in 2026? in the last 60 minutes (12¢ → 20¢). Kalshi hasn't caught up — still sitting at 14¢.Get alerts
Members get every gap, fork and lag as the scan finds it, 35–55 minutes after the hour.
Real-time scanning costs us per scan. The 6-hour board stays free forever.

Data: Polymarket id 0x67a229c77a9ac893f3895ed4dd1dfd1f89a6145da408bba530a544ec77ff6bfb · ← All tracked markets

Gaps close in hours.

The free channel posts at the next rebuild; members' DMs arrive as the scan finds it.

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