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Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?
79¢−376
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Quick answers
- Where is "Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?" cheaper right now?
- Polymarket last trade 79¢ (−376). No matched twin on another venue, so there is no cross-venue price to compare.
- When does "Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?" settle?
- Closes 2026-11-04. Pays Yes when: This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Michigan U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
Odds history
199 archived bid/ask quotes for "Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?" on Polymarket, 2026-10-26 to 2026-11-01.
How this market settles
- Pays Yes when
- This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Michigan U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
- Who decides
- The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC.
- When
- Closes 2026-11-04.
Read the full rules Polymarket publishes
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Michigan U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Heads up: Polymarket has 4 disputed resolutions in our archive. Read the rules before you bet.
What this bet really costs you
On $100 at 79¢ you pay $1.47 in fees on Kalshi
1.16¢ per contract · 126 contracts
On $100 at 79¢ you pay $1.05 in fees on Polymarket US
0.83¢ per contract · 126 contracts
Polymarket rate read from the catalog for sports_fees_v3 (15,702 markets in a sample of 20,000 rows drawn from 580,600 in the archive). Kalshi's rate is its published general schedule; the PDF has been rate-limiting fetches, so it is documented rather than verified.
Exchange-side taker fees per each venue's published formula (rate × contracts × price × (1 − price)); contracts = stake ÷ price, rounded down to whole contracts. Fees peak at 50¢ and shrink toward the extremes. Most quoted cross-venue “arbs” are negative-EV after these fees; the taker-fee breakeven on a Kalshi/Polymarket pair is roughly 3.5–4¢.
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Data: Polymarket id 0xbfeb6d4cf3eab6071e204219b0647c8224d63a12778df467311b5f2a4b3a5bd4 · ← All tracked markets