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Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?

0.6¢

last trade · closes 2026-12-09

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24h volume$106.7K
Open interest$407.0K
Lifetime volume$1.9M

Quick answers

Where is "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?" cheaper right now?
Polymarket last trade 0.6¢. No matched twin on another venue, so there is no cross-venue price to compare.
When does "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?" settle?
Closes 2026-12-09. Pays Yes when: The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range.

Odds history

Implied odds over timebid/askmid10.0%5.0%0.0%Oct 30 00:00 UTCNov 05 16:22 UTC

195 archived bid/ask quotes for "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?" on Polymarket, 2026-10-30 to 2026-11-05.

Smart money

Fills of $10,000 or more by wallets the ledger tracks, as the venue's public data API reports them: who is on which side, at what price, and the price a $100 order would pay on Polymarket now. Not a tip, and not advice.

35 tracked wallets have fills here, the biggest $35,776. Bought: No $120,978 · Yes $2,527.

All whale receipts →

How this market settles

Pays Yes when
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range.
Who decides
(e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar:…
Venue’s stated source
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
When
Closes 2026-12-09.
Read the full rules Polymarket publishes

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Heads up: Polymarket has 1 disputed resolution in our archive. Read the rules before you bet.

What this bet really costs you

  • On $100 at 1¢ you pay $6.93 in fees on Kalshi

    0.07¢ per contract · 10000 contracts

  • On $100 at 1¢ you pay $4.95 in fees on Polymarket US

    0.05¢ per contract · 10000 contracts

Polymarket rate read from the catalog for sports_fees_v3 (13,919 markets in a sample of 20,000 rows drawn from 260,838 in the archive). Kalshi's rate is its published general schedule; the PDF has been rate-limiting fetches, so it is documented rather than verified.

Exchange-side taker fees per each venue's published formula (rate × contracts × price × (1 − price)); contracts = stake ÷ price, rounded down to whole contracts. Fees peak at 50¢ and shrink toward the extremes. Most quoted cross-venue “arbs” are negative-EV after these fees; the taker-fee breakeven on a Kalshi/Polymarket pair is roughly 3.5–4¢.

Free channel: gaps at the next rebuild. Members: the instant one matching your watches, in your DM.

Polymarket moved 8¢ on US recession in 2026? in the last 60 minutes (12¢ → 20¢). Kalshi hasn't caught up — still sitting at 14¢.Get alerts
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Data: Polymarket id 0xa5f8a44504de30fa36fff2406b2b27b3d15476ed50448e4fc3ead4861d8a5e3e · ← All tracked markets

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