KalshiPoliticsFinalized
Will the Republican party win the governorship in California
0.8¢
Quick answers
- Where is "Will the Republican party win the governorship in California" cheaper right now?
- Kalshi last trade 0.8¢. No matched twin on another venue, so there is no cross-venue price to compare.
- When does "Will the Republican party win the governorship in California" settle?
- Closes 2026-11-04. Pays Yes when: If a representative of the Republican party is inaugurated as the governor of California pursuant to the 2026 election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Odds history
156 archived bid/ask quotes for "Will the Republican party win the governorship in California" on Kalshi, 2026-10-30 to 2026-11-05.
How this market settles
- Pays Yes when
- If a representative of the Republican party is inaugurated as the governor of California pursuant to the 2026 election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Who decides
- This market will close early following the first person to be sworn in as governor pursuant to the 2026 gubernatorial election.
- When
- Closes 2026-11-04.
Read the full rules Kalshi publishes
If a representative of the Republican party is inaugurated as the governor of California pursuant to the 2026 election, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
What this bet really costs you
On $100 at 1¢ you pay $6.93 in fees on Kalshi
0.07¢ per contract · 10000 contracts
On $100 at 1¢ you pay $4.95 in fees on Polymarket US
0.05¢ per contract · 10000 contracts
Polymarket rate read from the catalog for sports_fees_v3 (13,919 markets in a sample of 20,000 rows drawn from 270,036 in the archive). Kalshi's rate is its published general schedule; the PDF has been rate-limiting fetches, so it is documented rather than verified.
Exchange-side taker fees per each venue's published formula (rate × contracts × price × (1 − price)); contracts = stake ÷ price, rounded down to whole contracts. Fees peak at 50¢ and shrink toward the extremes. Most quoted cross-venue “arbs” are negative-EV after these fees; the taker-fee breakeven on a Kalshi/Polymarket pair is roughly 3.5–4¢.
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Data: Kalshi id GOVPARTYCA-26-R · ← All tracked markets