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Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

30¢+233

last trade · closes 2028-11-08

Open on PolymarketCompare across venues

24h volume$17.7K
Open interest$286.8K
Lifetime volume$1.3M

Quick answers

Where is "Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election?" cheaper right now?
Polymarket last trade 30¢ (+233). No matched twin on another venue, so there is no cross-venue price to compare.
When does "Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election?" settle?
Closes 2028-11-08. Pays Yes when: The 2028 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the political party whose candidate is elected the next President of the United States in the 2028 election.

Odds history

Implied odds over timebid/askmid40%33%25%Oct 30 00:20 UTCNov 05 16:20 UTC

176 archived bid/ask quotes for "Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election?" on Polymarket, 2026-10-30 to 2026-11-05.

Smart money

Fills of $10,000 or more by wallets the ledger tracks, as the venue's public data API reports them: who is on which side, at what price, and the price a $100 order would pay on Polymarket now. Not a tip, and not advice.

9 tracked wallets have fills here, the biggest $5,655. Bought: No $10,033 · Yes $7,576.

All whale receipts →

How this market settles

Pays Yes when
The 2028 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the political party whose candidate is elected the next President of the United States in the 2028 election.
Who decides
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC.
When
Closes 2028-11-08.
Read the full rules Polymarket publishes

The 2028 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the political party whose candidate is elected the next President of the United States in the 2028 election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same party. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same party by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

Heads up: Polymarket has 1 disputed resolution in our archive. Read the rules before you bet.

What this bet really costs you

  • On $100 at 30¢ you pay $4.90 in fees on Kalshi

    1.47¢ per contract · 333 contracts

  • On $100 at 30¢ you pay $3.50 in fees on Polymarket US

    1.05¢ per contract · 333 contracts

Polymarket rate read from the catalog for sports_fees_v3 (13,919 markets in a sample of 20,000 rows drawn from 260,838 in the archive). Kalshi's rate is its published general schedule; the PDF has been rate-limiting fetches, so it is documented rather than verified.

Exchange-side taker fees per each venue's published formula (rate × contracts × price × (1 − price)); contracts = stake ÷ price, rounded down to whole contracts. Fees peak at 50¢ and shrink toward the extremes. Most quoted cross-venue “arbs” are negative-EV after these fees; the taker-fee breakeven on a Kalshi/Polymarket pair is roughly 3.5–4¢.

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Polymarket moved 8¢ on US recession in 2026? in the last 60 minutes (12¢ → 20¢). Kalshi hasn't caught up — still sitting at 14¢.Get alerts
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Data: Polymarket id 0x0a99479228e93524b25676ae69b94bd3f4278a6bca8d8c265c84d24755399cf5 · ← All tracked markets

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