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Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?

36¢+178

last trade · closes 2026-11-04

Open on PolymarketCompare across venues

24h volume$90.0K
Open interest$390.0K
Lifetime volume$1.7M

Quick answers

Where is "Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?" cheaper right now?
Polymarket last trade 36¢ (+178). No matched twin on another venue, so there is no cross-venue price to compare.
When does "Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?" settle?
Closes 2026-11-04. Pays Yes when: This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.

Odds history

Implied odds over timebid/askmid45%37%28%Oct 05 00:00 UTCOct 11 19:28 UTC

200 archived bid/ask quotes for "Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?" on Polymarket, 2026-10-05 to 2026-10-11.

Smart money

Fills of $10,000 or more by wallets the ledger tracks, as the venue's public data API reports them: who is on which side, at what price, and the price a $100 order would pay on Polymarket now. Not a tip, and not advice.

38 tracked wallets have fills here, the biggest $58,080. Bought: No $228,945 · Yes $187,556.

All whale receipts →

How this market settles

Pays Yes when
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
Who decides
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC.
When
Closes 2026-11-04.
Read the full rules Polymarket publishes

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Heads up: Polymarket has 1 disputed resolution in our archive. Read the rules before you bet.

What this bet really costs you

  • On $100 at 36¢ you pay $4.47 in fees on Kalshi

    1.61¢ per contract · 277 contracts

  • On $100 at 36¢ you pay $3.19 in fees on Polymarket US

    1.15¢ per contract · 277 contracts

Polymarket rate read from the catalog for sports_fees_v3 (11,913 markets in a sample of 20,000 rows drawn from 719,831 in the archive). Kalshi's rate is its published general schedule; the PDF has been rate-limiting fetches, so it is documented rather than verified.

Exchange-side taker fees per each venue's published formula (rate × contracts × price × (1 − price)); contracts = stake ÷ price, rounded down to whole contracts. Fees peak at 50¢ and shrink toward the extremes. Most quoted cross-venue “arbs” are negative-EV after these fees; the taker-fee breakeven on a Kalshi/Polymarket pair is roughly 3.5–4¢.

Free channel: gaps at the next rebuild. Members: the instant one matching your watches, in your DM.

Polymarket moved 8¢ on US recession in 2026? in the last 60 minutes (12¢ → 20¢). Kalshi hasn't caught up — still sitting at 14¢.Get alerts
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Data: Polymarket id 0x94521176f57d2ce81dde01e0b7699ca4279423042d37ed53908f0c8bfefe7e14 · ← All tracked markets

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