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Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
5¢+1900
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Quick answers
- Where is "Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?" cheaper right now?
- Polymarket last trade 5¢ (+1900). No matched twin on another venue, so there is no cross-venue price to compare.
- When does "Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?" settle?
- Closes 2027-01-01. Pays Yes when: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Odds history
187 archived bid/ask quotes for "Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?" on Polymarket, 2026-10-26 to 2026-11-01.
How this market settles
hard deadline December 31, 2026
- Pays Yes when
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Who decides
- The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
- When
- Closes 2027-01-01.
Read the full rules Polymarket publishes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Heads up: Polymarket has 4 disputed resolutions in our archive. Read the rules before you bet.
What this bet really costs you
On $100 at 5¢ you pay $6.65 in fees on Kalshi
0.33¢ per contract · 2000 contracts
On $100 at 5¢ you pay $4.75 in fees on Polymarket US
0.24¢ per contract · 2000 contracts
Polymarket rate read from the catalog for sports_fees_v3 (15,702 markets in a sample of 20,000 rows drawn from 580,600 in the archive). Kalshi's rate is its published general schedule; the PDF has been rate-limiting fetches, so it is documented rather than verified.
Exchange-side taker fees per each venue's published formula (rate × contracts × price × (1 − price)); contracts = stake ÷ price, rounded down to whole contracts. Fees peak at 50¢ and shrink toward the extremes. Most quoted cross-venue “arbs” are negative-EV after these fees; the taker-fee breakeven on a Kalshi/Polymarket pair is roughly 3.5–4¢.
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Data: Polymarket id 0x80ebf0a88a44bf737d4047b3accd7108285c69b84257e5c684bdc4c715c81139 · ← All tracked markets