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Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
7.5¢+1233
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Quick answers
- Where is "Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?" cheaper right now?
- Polymarket last trade 7.5¢ (+1233). No matched twin on another venue, so there is no cross-venue price to compare.
- When does "Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?" settle?
- Closes 2027-01-01. Pays Yes when: This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1,…
Odds history
200 archived bid/ask quotes for "Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?" on Polymarket, 2026-10-26 to 2026-11-01.
How this market settles
- Pays Yes when
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1,…
- Who decides
- The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time.
- Venue’s stated source
- https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html
- When
- Closes 2027-01-01.
Read the full rules Polymarket publishes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.
Heads up: Polymarket has 4 disputed resolutions in our archive. Read the rules before you bet.
What this bet really costs you
On $100 at 8¢ you pay $6.44 in fees on Kalshi
0.52¢ per contract · 1250 contracts
On $100 at 8¢ you pay $4.60 in fees on Polymarket US
0.37¢ per contract · 1250 contracts
Polymarket rate read from the catalog for sports_fees_v3 (15,702 markets in a sample of 20,000 rows drawn from 580,600 in the archive). Kalshi's rate is its published general schedule; the PDF has been rate-limiting fetches, so it is documented rather than verified.
Exchange-side taker fees per each venue's published formula (rate × contracts × price × (1 − price)); contracts = stake ÷ price, rounded down to whole contracts. Fees peak at 50¢ and shrink toward the extremes. Most quoted cross-venue “arbs” are negative-EV after these fees; the taker-fee breakeven on a Kalshi/Polymarket pair is roughly 3.5–4¢.
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Data: Polymarket id 0x1d916047bbca1be9808076a0590c17ff113fb92986a4b4bc7f0f962642158827 · ← All tracked markets