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Another Fed rate hike in 2026?

66¢−194

last trade · closes 2026-12-10

Open on PolymarketCompare across venues

24h volume$73.3K
Open interest$84.8K
Lifetime volume$1.5M

Quick answers

Where is "Another Fed rate hike in 2026?" cheaper right now?
Polymarket last trade 66¢ (−194). No matched twin on another venue, so there is no cross-venue price to compare.
When does "Another Fed rate hike in 2026?" settle?
Closes 2026-12-10. Pays Yes when: This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9,…

Odds history

Implied odds over timebid/askmid83%73%63%Oct 30 00:00 UTCNov 05 16:22 UTC

192 archived bid/ask quotes for "Another Fed rate hike in 2026?" on Polymarket, 2026-10-30 to 2026-11-05.

Smart money

Fills of $10,000 or more by wallets the ledger tracks, as the venue's public data API reports them: who is on which side, at what price, and the price a $100 order would pay on Polymarket now. Not a tip, and not advice.

40 tracked wallets have fills here, the biggest $48,841. Bought: Yes $221,072 · No $64,110.

All whale receipts →

How this market settles

Pays Yes when
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9,…
Who decides
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Venue’s stated source
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
When
Closes 2026-12-10.
Read the full rules Polymarket publishes

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify. This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Heads up: Polymarket has 1 disputed resolution in our archive. Read the rules before you bet.

What this bet really costs you

  • On $100 at 66¢ you pay $2.38 in fees on Kalshi

    1.57¢ per contract · 151 contracts

  • On $100 at 66¢ you pay $1.69 in fees on Polymarket US

    1.12¢ per contract · 151 contracts

Polymarket rate read from the catalog for sports_fees_v3 (13,919 markets in a sample of 20,000 rows drawn from 260,838 in the archive). Kalshi's rate is its published general schedule; the PDF has been rate-limiting fetches, so it is documented rather than verified.

Exchange-side taker fees per each venue's published formula (rate × contracts × price × (1 − price)); contracts = stake ÷ price, rounded down to whole contracts. Fees peak at 50¢ and shrink toward the extremes. Most quoted cross-venue “arbs” are negative-EV after these fees; the taker-fee breakeven on a Kalshi/Polymarket pair is roughly 3.5–4¢.

Free channel: gaps at the next rebuild. Members: the instant one matching your watches, in your DM.

Polymarket moved 8¢ on US recession in 2026? in the last 60 minutes (12¢ → 20¢). Kalshi hasn't caught up — still sitting at 14¢.Get alerts
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Data: Polymarket id 0x9b1a03b41a1a68c209e9c3caf3d8af3f878420d6dbe8cb8afffd66049e73b114 · ← All tracked markets

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