No · AI bubble burst in 2026?
$3,752 at 92¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 92¢ pays $109
hfv0xe102…71df
Every $100 on their bets came back as $96.10 · 1,058 bets settled since Oct 13
Not verified yet — cautious estimate not above $100
- 1058 bets settled in the last 90 days — 30 is the minimum
- Cautious estimate: $90.56 back per $100 — needs to be above $100
- Last fill 1 days ago — within the last 14 days
Bets at 97¢ or more don't count (103 left out). Checked 2026-11-05 16:26 UTC.
Best at Tech · $100 → $114last 10
Open bets you can still get in on
No · Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
$3,123 at 90.1¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 90.1¢ pays $111Yes · Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?
$2,693 at 67¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 67¢ pays $149
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Track record
Settled bets · newest first$100 result
- Yes · Will voters pick the 1873 Colt Single Action Army Revolver "Peacemaker" (.45 Colt) as the state gun of Idaho?$6 at 15¢ · Nov 5 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Allstate (ALL) Q3 property-liability combined ratio 86% to 88%?$11 at 27¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$270
- No · Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?$16 at 79¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$27
- Yes · Will Democrats win exactly 13 House seats in Texas in the 2026 midterm elections?$4 at 19¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
3 bets at 97¢ or more · $521left out of every figure—
- No · Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, and Texas, and lose Maine, Michigan, and Ohio?$245 at 98.9¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$1
- No · Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, and Ohio, and lose Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas?$5 at 99.8¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)$0
- No · Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio?$271 at 98.6¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$1
- Yes · Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio?$5 at 2.4¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
1 bet at 97¢ or more · $200left out of every figure—
- No · Will Republicans win Maine, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, and Ohio?$200 at 99.9¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)$0
- No · Will the Democratic Party win the MI-07 House seat?$29 at 28.5¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will the Republican Party win the MI-10 House seat?$7 at 34¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · Will Republicans lose any "Safe Republican" Senate race?$26 at 75¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will oil be at least $80 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?$1,001 at 64.1¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$56
- Yes · Will Heather Jefts win the 2026 Williamson County Judge election?$21 at 65.5¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$53
- Yes · Will the Democrats win Kent County in the Michigan Senate race in 2026?$28 at 86¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$16
- Yes · Will the Republicans win Collin County in the Texas Senate race in 2026?$6 at 30¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · CVS Health (CVS) Q3 medical benefit ratio (MBR) 92% to 93.5%?$23 at 79.9¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$25
- Yes · Will the Republican Party hold between 205 and 209 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?$21 at 25.7¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?$38 at 75¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$33
- Yes · Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?$14 at 28¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · Will the Democratic Party win the OH-09 House seat?$15 at 23.6¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will the Democratic Party win the OH-09 House seat?$17 at 76.7¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$30
- Yes · Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?$270 at 67.5¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$48
- No · Will AP call US House control by November 4, 3:59 AM?$2 at 20¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · Will the Democratic Party win the TX-36 House seat?$4,844 at 96.5¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$4
- Yes · Will the Democratic Party win the TX-36 House seat?$55 at 6.2¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · Will the Republican Party win the TX-24 House seat?$110 at 9.8¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · Will the Democratic Party win the OH-07 House seat?$28 at 14.9¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will the Democratic Party win the OH-07 House seat?$91 at 90.5¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$11
1 bet at 97¢ or more · $8,527left out of every figure—
- No · Will the Democratic Party win the TX-04 House seat?$8,527 at 97¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$3
- No · Will the Republican Party win the PA-01 House seat?$22 at 43.4¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$130
- Yes · Will the Republican Party win the PA-01 House seat?$35 at 60.7¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · Will the Democratic Party win the PA-01 House seat?$3 at 56¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will the Democratic Party win the PA-01 House seat?$22 at 44¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$127
- No · Will the Republican Party win the CO-08 House seat?$15 at 88¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$14
- No · Will the Republican Party win the VA-02 House seat?$63 at 92¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$9
- Yes · Will Democrats win the Iowa Governor election and Republicans win the Iowa Senate election?$28 at 46.5¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will Democrats sweep the Texas Senate and Governor elections?$4 at 32¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$213
- No · Will the Democratic Party win the WI-07 House seat?$4,862 at 96.5¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$4
- No · Will the Republican Party win the TX-34 House seat?$129 at 85¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$18
- Yes · Will the Democratic Party win the OH-01 House seat?$1,711 at 92.6¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$8
- Yes · Will the Democratic Party win the KY-06 House seat?$14 at 46¢ · Nov 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$117
- No · Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.0M and 7.1M in September?$11 at 90¢ · Nov 3 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$11
- Yes · Yum! Brands (YUM) Q3 worldwide same-restaurant sales growth -0.5% to 0.5%?$8 at 41¢ · Nov 3 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$144
- Yes · Paxton flips Talarico for Texas Senate by November 2?$3 at 4.5¢ · Nov 3 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- No · Talarico Texas Senate odds hit 75% by November 2?$51 at 90¢ · Nov 2 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Talarico Texas Senate odds hit 75% by November 2?$14 at 24.3¢ · Nov 2 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$311
- No · Will White House post 200+ posts from October 27 to November 3, 2026?$3 at 13¢ · Nov 2 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will DeepSeek have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 26?$16 at 82¢ · Nov 2 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$22
- Yes · Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?$7 at 14.8¢ · Nov 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
The newest 50 bets are listed; the figures above count all 1,058 settled bets.
25 more open bets
No · Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2027?
$2,515 at 53¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 53¢ pays $189Yes · Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?
$2,419 at 50¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 50¢ pays $200Yes · Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?
$2,173 at 79¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 79¢ pays $127No · Will Grand Theft Auto VI win Best Game Direction at the 2026 Game Awards?
$1,922 at 60.9¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 60.9¢ pays $164No · Will the Republican Party hold between 200 and 204 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
$1,739 at 90.5¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 90.5¢ pays $110No · UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?
$1,548 at 89¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 89¢ pays $112No · US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?
$1,401 at 89¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 89¢ pays $112Yes · Will Chung Tung-chin win the next Miaoli County Magistrate election?
$1,355 at 91.9¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 91.9¢ pays $109No · US strike on Colombia by December 31?
$1,225 at 77¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 77¢ pays $130Yes · Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
$926 at 77.4¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 77.4¢ pays $129No · US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31?
$904 at 69¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 69¢ pays $145No · Will T1 win Worlds 2026?
$849 at 81¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 81¢ pays $123No · Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026?
$812 at 77¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 77¢ pays $130Yes · Will Democrats win white women in the midterms?
$753 at 80¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 80¢ pays $125Yes · Will the Democratic Party win the WA-05 House seat?
$701 at 13.9¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 13.9¢ pays $719No · Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for Saudi Arabia by December 31?
$688 at 85¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 85¢ pays $118Yes · Will Argentina's monthly inflation in October 2026 be between 1.9% and 2.1%?
$660 at 51¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 51¢ pays $196No · Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?
$580 at 56¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 56¢ pays $179Yes · Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
$559 at 56¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 56¢ pays $179No · Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?
$537 at 89¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 89¢ pays $112No · US imports Russian diesel by November 30?
$476 at 35¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 35¢ pays $286Yes · US recession by end of 2027?
$466 at 33¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 33¢ pays $303No · Will the Iranian regime fall before 2028?
$450 at 72¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 72¢ pays $139No · Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?
$441 at 87.7¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 87.7¢ pays $114No · Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31?
$440 at 92¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 92¢ pays $109
By topic · $100 →
- Politics364 bets$92
- Other212 bets$95
- Tech90 bets$114
- Weather87 bets$97
- Culture63 bets$105
- NFL61 bets$91
- Soccer61 bets$67
- Economy49 bets$111
- Sports43 bets$102
- Esports14 bets$78
- Crypto11 bets$171
- MLB3 bets$113
Polymarket’s own figures: realized +$719,112 · unrealized −$99,564 · profile ↗ (opens in a new tab)
Realized and unrealized
Realized and unrealized P&L are Polymarket's own figures for this wallet, read from its public data API and labelled as such. TapeXray computes neither, and unrealized never appears in a headline.
Not verified yet — cautious estimate not above $100
- 1058 bets settled in the last 90 days — 30 is the minimum
- Cautious estimate: $90.56 back per $100 — needs to be above $100
- Last fill 1 days ago — within the last 14 days
Bets at 97¢ or more don't count (103 left out). Checked 2026-11-05 16:26 UTC.
Free channel: gaps at the next rebuild. Members: the instant one matching your watches, in your DM.
Get alerts (opens in a new tab)Members get every gap, fork and lag as the scan finds it, 35–55 minutes after the hour.
Why the board stays free
Real-time scanning costs us per scan. The 6-hour board stays free forever.
Fine print
- Wallets are pseudonymous. A wallet is its address. A name beside it is the handle its owner chose on Polymarket and set to public, and nothing else is inferred. The verified tick is earned from the record on every export, never granted by hand.
- Receipts, not advice. A receipt records what a wallet did, at what price, and what $100 would pay at the live price. Nothing here says what to bet. Research, not advice.
- Whose figures. “$100 on each bet” counts settled bets at the whale’s own price; bets at 97¢ or more are left out, and fees and slippage are not in it. Realized and unrealized P&L are Polymarket’s own, from its public data API.
- Report an error or ask for a handle to be removed: contact. How the $100 figure and the tick work: methodology.
Data: Polymarket data API, wallet 0xe102b1da4367d827b48c47ea91fadf6997ff71df · ← All whale receipts