Get alertsSign in

PolymarketOtherOpen

Iran leadership change by November 30?

4¢+2400

last trade · closes 2026-12-01

Open on PolymarketCompare across venues

24h volume$80.6K
Open interest$173.8K
Lifetime volume$767.8K

Quick answers

Where is "Iran leadership change by November 30?" cheaper right now?
Polymarket last trade 4¢ (+2400). No matched twin on another venue, so there is no cross-venue price to compare.
When does "Iran leadership change by November 30?" settle?
Closes 2026-12-01. Pays Yes when: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET).

Odds history

Implied odds over timebid/askmid16%8%0%Oct 30 00:00 UTCNov 05 16:22 UTC

198 archived bid/ask quotes for "Iran leadership change by November 30?" on Polymarket, 2026-10-30 to 2026-11-05.

Smart money

Fills of $10,000 or more by wallets the ledger tracks, as the venue's public data API reports them: who is on which side, at what price, and the price a $100 order would pay on Polymarket now. Not a tip, and not advice.

27 tracked wallets have fills here, the biggest $19,200. Bought: No $106,608 · Yes $5,535.

All whale receipts →

How this market settles

Pays Yes when
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET).
Who decides
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
When
Closes 2026-12-01.
Read the full rules Polymarket publishes

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Heads up: Polymarket has 1 disputed resolution in our archive. Read the rules before you bet.

What this bet really costs you

  • On $100 at 4¢ you pay $6.72 in fees on Kalshi

    0.27¢ per contract · 2500 contracts

  • On $100 at 4¢ you pay $4.80 in fees on Polymarket US

    0.19¢ per contract · 2500 contracts

Polymarket rate read from the catalog for sports_fees_v3 (13,919 markets in a sample of 20,000 rows drawn from 260,838 in the archive). Kalshi's rate is its published general schedule; the PDF has been rate-limiting fetches, so it is documented rather than verified.

Exchange-side taker fees per each venue's published formula (rate × contracts × price × (1 − price)); contracts = stake ÷ price, rounded down to whole contracts. Fees peak at 50¢ and shrink toward the extremes. Most quoted cross-venue “arbs” are negative-EV after these fees; the taker-fee breakeven on a Kalshi/Polymarket pair is roughly 3.5–4¢.

Free channel: gaps at the next rebuild. Members: the instant one matching your watches, in your DM.

Polymarket moved 8¢ on US recession in 2026? in the last 60 minutes (12¢ → 20¢). Kalshi hasn't caught up — still sitting at 14¢.Get alerts
Members get every gap, fork and lag as the scan finds it, 35–55 minutes after the hour.
Real-time scanning costs us per scan. The 6-hour board stays free forever.

Data: Polymarket id 0x7a611b2ae4e3b871580dececcf7cf126eead47fe58ebea15b1865a7c8a881376 · ← All tracked markets

Gaps close in hours.

The free channel posts at the next rebuild; members' DMs arrive as the scan finds it.

Open the free channelSet up personal alerts