Yes · Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?
$2,175 at 85¢
PolymarketOtherOpen
86¢−614
Open on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)Compare across venues
200 archived bid/ask quotes for "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?" on Polymarket, 2026-10-05 to 2026-10-11.
37 tracked wallets have fills here, the biggest $23,730. Bought: Yes $281,945 · No $28,542.
Yes · Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?
$2,175 at 85¢
Yes · Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?
$1,066 at 86¢
Yes · Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?
$860 at 86¢
No · Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?
Sold $249 at 15¢
Yes · Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?
$416 at 84¢
Yes · Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?
$8 at 84¢
Yes · Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?
$716 at 84¢
Yes · Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?
$2,053 at 85.9¢
No · Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?
$245 at 16¢
No · Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?
$2,485 at 14.6¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israel or Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. A military action will be considered to impact Israel or Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Israel or Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IRST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.
Heads up: Polymarket has 1 disputed resolution in our archive. Read the rules before you bet.
On $100 at 86¢ you pay $0.98 in fees on Kalshi
0.84¢ per contract · 116 contracts
On $100 at 86¢ you pay $0.70 in fees on Polymarket US
0.60¢ per contract · 116 contracts
Polymarket rate read from the catalog for sports_fees_v3 (11,913 markets in a sample of 20,000 rows drawn from 719,831 in the archive). Kalshi's rate is its published general schedule; the PDF has been rate-limiting fetches, so it is documented rather than verified.
Exchange-side taker fees per each venue's published formula (rate × contracts × price × (1 − price)); contracts = stake ÷ price, rounded down to whole contracts. Fees peak at 50¢ and shrink toward the extremes. Most quoted cross-venue “arbs” are negative-EV after these fees; the taker-fee breakeven on a Kalshi/Polymarket pair is roughly 3.5–4¢.
Free channel: gaps at the next rebuild. Members: the instant one matching your watches, in your DM.
Get alerts (opens in a new tab)Data: Polymarket id 0xc3d5708780de5528998aeb53ca90e7ade64804f9f2386392a681435d5c42b44d · ← All tracked markets
The free channel posts at the next rebuild; members' DMs arrive as the scan finds it.