No · Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
$29,459 at 84.2¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 84.2¢ pays $119
laureman0x1359…092e
Every $100 on their bets came back as $111.43 · 31 bets settled since Sep 15
Why verified
- 31 bets settled in the last 90 days — 30 is the minimum
- Cautious estimate: $104.83 back per $100 — above $100
- Active today — within the last 14 days
Bets at 97¢ or more don't count (19 left out). Checked 2026-10-01 14:29 UTC.
Best at Politics · $100 → $106last 10
Open bets you can still get in on
Yes · Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?
$9,912 at 82.5¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 82.5¢ pays $121Yes · Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?
$7,530 at 66.1¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 66.1¢ pays $151
Watch in this browserWatch in Telegram (opens in a new tab)
Track record
Settled bets · newest first$100 result
1 bet at 97¢ or more · $4,400left out of every figure—
- No · Foreign intervention in Gaza by September 30?$4,400 at 98.1¢ · Oct 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$2
- No · Israel military action against Yemen by September 30?$2,471 at 94.1¢ · Oct 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$6
- No · Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in September?$588 at 49.9¢ · Oct 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$100
- No · Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September?$1,019 at 69.1¢ · Oct 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$45
- No · Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in September?$15,845 at 74.2¢ · Oct 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$35
- No · Will the US announce a diesel export ban by September 30?$3,780 at 94.5¢ · Oct 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$6
1 bet at 97¢ or more · $3,926left out of every figure—
- No · Iran leadership change by September 30?$3,926 at 98¢ · Oct 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$2
- No · Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?$379 at 67.7¢ · Oct 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$48
- No · Will $LAPTOP reach $3.50 by September 30, 2026?$2,338 at 95.7¢ · Oct 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$5
2 bets at 97¢ or more · $931left out of every figure—
- No · Will $LAPTOP reach $7.50 by September 30, 2026?$397 at 98.6¢ · Oct 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$1
- No · Will $LAPTOP reach $10 by September 30, 2026?$534 at 99¢ · Oct 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$1
- No · Will $LAPTOP reach $5 by September 30, 2026?$1,133 at 95¢ · Oct 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$5
- No · US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?$5,141 at 96.9¢ · Oct 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$3
1 bet at 97¢ or more · $650left out of every figure—
- No · Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?$650 at 97.2¢ · Oct 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$3
- Yes · US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?$19,584 at 87.9¢ · Sep 30 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$14
- Yes · Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?$14,893 at 92.9¢ · Sep 30 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$8
- Yes · Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?$2,747 at 89¢ · Sep 30 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$12
3 bets at 97¢ or more · $4,557left out of every figure—
- Yes · Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from September 22 to September 29, 2026?$2,125 at 97.1¢ · Sep 29 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$3
- Yes · Will Bitget resume withdrawals by September 30, 2026?$1,712 at 97.8¢ · Sep 28 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$2
- No · Will Bitget resume withdrawals by September 27, 2026?$720 at 98.3¢ · Sep 28 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$2
- Yes · US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 25?$16,978 at 95.7¢ · Sep 27 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$4
- Yes · Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from September 18 to September 25, 2026?$1,722 at 94.4¢ · Sep 25 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$6
- Yes · Will Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) finish second on the party-list vote in Moscow?$3,912 at 96.6¢ · Sep 25 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$4
- No · Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by September 24, 2026?$66 at 77.9¢ · Sep 25 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$28
- No · Houthis seize an oil tanker by September 15, 2026?$846 at 94¢ · Sep 24 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$6
- No · Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by September 23?$66 at 82¢ · Sep 24 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$22
- Yes · Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 24?$3,249 at 94.2¢ · Sep 24 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$6
- Yes · Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 23?$113 at 90¢ · Sep 24 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$11
- No · Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 22?$366 at 96.2¢ · Sep 23 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$4
- Yes · Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from September 15 to September 22, 2026?$3,483 at 96.2¢ · Sep 22 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$4
- No · Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from September 15 to September 22, 2026?$554 at 95.4¢ · Sep 22 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$5
- Yes · Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23?$750 at 81.4¢ · Sep 22 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$23
- No · Will Trump meet with Mette Frederiksen by September 30, 2026?$146 at 45.7¢ · Sep 22 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$18,746 at 93¢ · Sep 21 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$8
- Yes · US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 20?$2,549 at 95.3¢ · Sep 21 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$5
- Yes · Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from September 11 to September 18, 2026?$1,433 at 95.6¢ · Sep 18 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$5
- Yes · US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?$3,615 at 95.9¢ · Sep 18 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$4
- Yes · Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 15?$115 at 95¢ · Sep 15 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$5
- Yes · Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from September 8 to September 15, 2026?$102 at 85¢ · Sep 15 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$18
3 bets at 97¢ or more · $4,004left out of every figure—
- Yes · Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from September 4 to September 11, 2026?$2,907 at 99.7¢ · Sep 11 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)$0
- No · Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from September 4 to September 11, 2026?$879 at 99.9¢ · Sep 11 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)$0
- No · Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from September 4 to September 11, 2026?$218 at 99.8¢ · Sep 11 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)$0
20 more open bets
Yes · US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?
$3,804 at 44.5¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 44.5¢ pays $225Yes · US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?
$2,053 at 59.3¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 59.3¢ pays $169No · Will Missouri enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026?
$1,933 at 88¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 88¢ pays $114Yes · US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?
$1,604 at 34.6¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 34.6¢ pays $289No · Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026?
$1,511 at 89¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 89¢ pays $112Yes · Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?
$1,380 at 69¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 69¢ pays $145No · Will Ohio enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026?
$1,350 at 90¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 90¢ pays $111Yes · Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from September 25 to October 2, 2026?
$1,121 at 92.8¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 92.8¢ pays $108Yes · US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?
$900 at 60¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 60¢ pays $167Yes · Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)
$888 at 60.7¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 60.7¢ pays $165Yes · Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from September 29 to October 6, 2026?
$866 at 85.4¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 85.4¢ pays $117No · Will Louisiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026?
$819 at 91¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 91¢ pays $110No · Will Oklahoma enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026?
$810 at 90¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 90¢ pays $111No · Will Mojtaba Khamenei attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
$646 at 96.8¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 96.8¢ pays $103Yes · Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from October 2 to October 9, 2026?
$159 at 92¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 92¢ pays $109No · Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by September 30?
$138 at 73.7¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 73.7¢ pays $136No · Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026?
$27 at 85¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 85¢ pays $118Yes · Will OpenAI have the best Image Edit AI at the end of October 2026?
$26 at 93¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 93¢ pays $108No · Houthis seize an oil tanker by September 30, 2026?
$21 at 94.9¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 94.9¢ pays $105Yes · Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
$2 at 74¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 74¢ pays $135
By topic · $100 →
- Politics25 bets$106
- Other3 bets$160
- Crypto2 bets$105
- Tech1 bets$112
Polymarket’s own figures: realized +$10,917 · unrealized −$744 · profile ↗ (opens in a new tab)
Realized and unrealized
Realized and unrealized P&L are Polymarket's own figures for this wallet, read from its public data API and labelled as such. TapeXray computes neither, and unrealized never appears in a headline.
Why verified
- 31 bets settled in the last 90 days — 30 is the minimum
- Cautious estimate: $104.83 back per $100 — above $100
- Active today — within the last 14 days
Bets at 97¢ or more don't count (19 left out). Checked 2026-10-01 14:29 UTC.
Free channel: gaps at the next rebuild. Members: the instant one matching your watches, in your DM.
Get alerts (opens in a new tab)Members get every gap, fork and lag as the scan finds it, 35–55 minutes after the hour.
Fine print
- Wallets are pseudonymous. A wallet is its address. A name beside it is the handle its owner chose on Polymarket and set to public, and nothing else is inferred. The verified tick is earned from the record on every export, never granted by hand.
- Receipts, not advice. A receipt records what a wallet did, at what price, and what $100 would pay at the live price. Nothing here says what to bet. Research, not advice.
- Whose figures. “$100 on each bet” counts settled bets at the whale’s own price; bets at 97¢ or more are left out, and fees and slippage are not in it. Realized and unrealized P&L are Polymarket’s own, from its public data API.
- Report an error or ask for a handle to be removed: contact. How the $100 figure and the tick work: methodology.
Data: Polymarket data API, wallet 0x1359911d098bf507069e7e22370e6f6cae3f092e · ← All whale receipts