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Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

88¢−733

last trade · closes 2026-12-31

Open on PolymarketCompare across venues

24h volume$14.0K
Open interest$43.4K
Lifetime volume$907.8K

Quick answers

Where is "Nothing Ever Happens: 2026" cheaper right now?
Polymarket last trade 88¢ (−733). No matched twin on another venue, so there is no cross-venue price to compare.
When does "Nothing Ever Happens: 2026" settle?
Closes 2026-12-31. Pays Yes when: This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET: - Trump out as President - China invades Taiwan - Xi Jinping out - U.S. invades Iran - Iranian regime…

Odds history

Implied odds over timebid/askmid93%82%72%Oct 30 00:05 UTCNov 05 16:22 UTC

178 archived bid/ask quotes for "Nothing Ever Happens: 2026" on Polymarket, 2026-10-30 to 2026-11-05.

Smart money

Fills of $10,000 or more by wallets the ledger tracks, as the venue's public data API reports them: who is on which side, at what price, and the price a $100 order would pay on Polymarket now. Not a tip, and not advice.

16 tracked wallets have fills here, the biggest $6,966. Bought: Yes $14,721 · No $661.

All whale receipts →

How this market settles

two ways to resolve Yes

Pays Yes when
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET: - Trump out as President - China invades Taiwan - Xi Jinping out - U.S. invades Iran - Iranian regime…
When
Closes 2026-12-31.
Read the full rules Polymarket publishes

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET: - Trump out as President - China invades Taiwan - Xi Jinping out - U.S. invades Iran - Iranian regime falls - Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’ - Jeffrey Epstein alive - Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate - Russia invades a NATO country - Trump acquires Greenland - 9.0 or above earthquake - Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) - Major meteor strike (250kt+) Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH+2026.pdf

Heads up: Polymarket has 1 disputed resolution in our archive. Read the rules before you bet.

What this bet really costs you

  • On $100 at 88¢ you pay $0.84 in fees on Kalshi

    0.74¢ per contract · 113 contracts

  • On $100 at 88¢ you pay $0.60 in fees on Polymarket US

    0.53¢ per contract · 113 contracts

Polymarket rate read from the catalog for sports_fees_v3 (13,919 markets in a sample of 20,000 rows drawn from 260,838 in the archive). Kalshi's rate is its published general schedule; the PDF has been rate-limiting fetches, so it is documented rather than verified.

Exchange-side taker fees per each venue's published formula (rate × contracts × price × (1 − price)); contracts = stake ÷ price, rounded down to whole contracts. Fees peak at 50¢ and shrink toward the extremes. Most quoted cross-venue “arbs” are negative-EV after these fees; the taker-fee breakeven on a Kalshi/Polymarket pair is roughly 3.5–4¢.

Free channel: gaps at the next rebuild. Members: the instant one matching your watches, in your DM.

Polymarket moved 8¢ on US recession in 2026? in the last 60 minutes (12¢ → 20¢). Kalshi hasn't caught up — still sitting at 14¢.Get alerts
Members get every gap, fork and lag as the scan finds it, 35–55 minutes after the hour.
Real-time scanning costs us per scan. The 6-hour board stays free forever.

Data: Polymarket id 0xa090ae1a88ca96bcae7523a65a96425ed53616709be75cb69a0df144f718931e · ← All tracked markets

Gaps close in hours.

The free channel posts at the next rebuild; members' DMs arrive as the scan finds it.

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