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Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?

56¢−127

last trade · closes 2028-01-01

Open on PolymarketCompare across venues

24h volume$30.2K
Open interest$61.4K
Lifetime volume$915.5K

Quick answers

Where is "Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?" cheaper right now?
Polymarket last trade 56¢ (−127). No matched twin on another venue, so there is no cross-venue price to compare.
When does "Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?" settle?
Closes 2028-01-01. Pays Yes when: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Variational's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch.

Odds history

Implied odds over timebid/askmid63%56%49%Oct 30 00:20 UTCNov 05 16:20 UTC

176 archived bid/ask quotes for "Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?" on Polymarket, 2026-10-30 to 2026-11-05.

Smart money

Fills of $10,000 or more by wallets the ledger tracks, as the venue's public data API reports them: who is on which side, at what price, and the price a $100 order would pay on Polymarket now. Not a tip, and not advice.

17 tracked wallets have fills here, the biggest $14,579. Bought: Yes $57,769 · No $975.

All whale receipts →

How this market settles

hard deadline December 31, 2027

Pays Yes when
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Variational's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch.
Who decides
The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available.
When
Closes 2028-01-01.
Read the full rules Polymarket publishes

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Variational's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Variational doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Heads up: Polymarket has 1 disputed resolution in our archive. Read the rules before you bet.

What this bet really costs you

  • On $100 at 56¢ you pay $3.08 in fees on Kalshi

    1.72¢ per contract · 178 contracts

  • On $100 at 56¢ you pay $2.19 in fees on Polymarket US

    1.23¢ per contract · 178 contracts

Polymarket rate read from the catalog for sports_fees_v3 (13,919 markets in a sample of 20,000 rows drawn from 260,838 in the archive). Kalshi's rate is its published general schedule; the PDF has been rate-limiting fetches, so it is documented rather than verified.

Exchange-side taker fees per each venue's published formula (rate × contracts × price × (1 − price)); contracts = stake ÷ price, rounded down to whole contracts. Fees peak at 50¢ and shrink toward the extremes. Most quoted cross-venue “arbs” are negative-EV after these fees; the taker-fee breakeven on a Kalshi/Polymarket pair is roughly 3.5–4¢.

Free channel: gaps at the next rebuild. Members: the instant one matching your watches, in your DM.

Polymarket moved 8¢ on US recession in 2026? in the last 60 minutes (12¢ → 20¢). Kalshi hasn't caught up — still sitting at 14¢.Get alerts
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Data: Polymarket id 0x88b2827dd9bb9b3ebd4f229561a7606bd2bbdedbf3dfbb9c563e1e7dd2673747 · ← All tracked markets

Gaps close in hours.

The free channel posts at the next rebuild; members' DMs arrive as the scan finds it.

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