Get alertsSign in

PolymarketPoliticsOpen

Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?

3.2¢+3025

last trade · closes 2026-11-04

Open on PolymarketCompare across venues

24h volume$357.7K
Open interest$193.1K
Lifetime volume$2.3M

Quick answers

Where is "Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?" cheaper right now?
Polymarket last trade 3.2¢ (+3025). No matched twin on another venue, so there is no cross-venue price to compare.
When does "Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?" settle?
Closes 2026-11-04. Pays Yes when: This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alaska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027,…

Odds history

Implied odds over timebid/askmid36%18%0%Oct 30 00:00 UTCNov 05 22:43 UTC

196 archived bid/ask quotes for "Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?" on Polymarket, 2026-10-30 to 2026-11-05.

Smart money

Fills of $10,000 or more by wallets the ledger tracks, as the venue's public data API reports them: who is on which side, at what price, and the price a $100 order would pay on Polymarket now. Not a tip, and not advice.

73 tracked wallets have fills here, the biggest $43,774. Bought: No $131,759 · Yes $64,959.

All whale receipts →

How this market settles

hard deadline July 31, 2027

Pays Yes when
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alaska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027,…
Who decides
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC.
When
Closes 2026-11-04.
Read the full rules Polymarket publishes

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alaska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.

Heads up: Polymarket has 8 disputed resolutions in our archive. Read the rules before you bet.

What this bet really costs you

  • On $100 at 3¢ you pay $6.79 in fees on Kalshi

    0.20¢ per contract · 3333 contracts

  • On $100 at 3¢ you pay $4.85 in fees on Polymarket US

    0.15¢ per contract · 3333 contracts

Polymarket rate read from the catalog for sports_fees_v3 (13,919 markets in a sample of 20,000 rows drawn from 270,036 in the archive). Kalshi's rate is its published general schedule; the PDF has been rate-limiting fetches, so it is documented rather than verified.

Exchange-side taker fees per each venue's published formula (rate × contracts × price × (1 − price)); contracts = stake ÷ price, rounded down to whole contracts. Fees peak at 50¢ and shrink toward the extremes. Most quoted cross-venue “arbs” are negative-EV after these fees; the taker-fee breakeven on a Kalshi/Polymarket pair is roughly 3.5–4¢.

Free channel: gaps at the next rebuild. Members: the instant one matching your watches, in your DM.

Polymarket moved 8¢ on US recession in 2026? in the last 60 minutes (12¢ → 20¢). Kalshi hasn't caught up — still sitting at 14¢.Get alerts
Members get every gap, fork and lag as the scan finds it, 35–55 minutes after the hour.
Real-time scanning costs us per scan. The 6-hour board stays free forever.

Data: Polymarket id 0x741bb46008b72234857c5118c8365ab3c2f69dbf28b30b59de04f173b8a778de · ← All tracked markets

Gaps close in hours.

The free channel posts at the next rebuild; members' DMs arrive as the scan finds it.

Open the free channelSet up personal alerts