Alegrandebig
No · Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?
$98 at 98¢
PolymarketOtherOpen
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?
2¢
Open on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)Compare across venues
24h volume$12.9K
Open interest$345.6K
Lifetime volume$1.5M
Quick answers
- Where is "Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?" cheaper right now?
- Polymarket last trade 2¢. No matched twin on another venue, so there is no cross-venue price to compare.
- When does "Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?" settle?
- Closes 2026-12-31. Pays Yes when: This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Gold (GC) futures is equal to or above the listed price by the final trading day of December 2026.…
Odds history
189 archived bid/ask quotes for "Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?" on Polymarket, 2026-10-30 to 2026-11-05.
Smart money
What smart money means here
Fills of $10,000 or more by wallets the ledger tracks, as the venue's public data API reports them: who is on which side, at what price, and the price a $100 order would pay on Polymarket now. Not a tip, and not advice.
20 tracked wallets have fills here, the biggest $45,959. Bought: No $487,348 · Yes $394.
- Alegrandebig
No · Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?
$98 at 98¢
- Alegrandebig
No · Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?
$210 at 97.8¢
- ronm238
No · Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?
Sold $2,001 at 97.8¢
- ronm238
No · Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?
Sold $10 at 97.9¢
- ronm238
No · Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?
Sold $98 at 97.9¢
- QMG-CORE$100 → $185.25
No · Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?
Sold $304 at 98¢
- Alegrandebig
No · Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?
$309 at 98¢
- Alegrandebig
No · Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?
$110 at 97.7¢
- Alegrandebig
No · Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?
$651 at 97.9¢
How this market settles
- Pays Yes when
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Gold (GC) futures is equal to or above the listed price by the final trading day of December 2026.…
- Who decides
- The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.
- When
- Closes 2026-12-31.
Read the full rules Polymarket publishes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Gold (GC) futures is equal to or above the listed price by the final trading day of December 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures. If the official settlement price for any relevant trading day has not been published on the CME Group website within 72 hours of the final trading day (ET) of the specified period, the market will resolve based on the settlement prices published through all CME channels up to that point.
Heads up: Polymarket has 1 disputed resolution in our archive. Read the rules before you bet.
What this bet really costs you
On $100 at 2¢ you pay $6.86 in fees on Kalshi
0.14¢ per contract · 5000 contracts
On $100 at 2¢ you pay $4.90 in fees on Polymarket US
0.10¢ per contract · 5000 contracts
Polymarket rate read from the catalog for sports_fees_v3 (13,919 markets in a sample of 20,000 rows drawn from 260,838 in the archive). Kalshi's rate is its published general schedule; the PDF has been rate-limiting fetches, so it is documented rather than verified.
Exchange-side taker fees per each venue's published formula (rate × contracts × price × (1 − price)); contracts = stake ÷ price, rounded down to whole contracts. Fees peak at 50¢ and shrink toward the extremes. Most quoted cross-venue “arbs” are negative-EV after these fees; the taker-fee breakeven on a Kalshi/Polymarket pair is roughly 3.5–4¢.
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Data: Polymarket id 0x75546dcfa25f2cdd0edb5730ed2dc6f4b03940c2b1cb27eaefba47bfe434345d · ← All tracked markets