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Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?

0.2¢

last trade · closes 2026-10-05

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24h volume$2.8M
Open interest$286.1K
Lifetime volume$3.4M

Quick answers

Where is "Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?" cheaper right now?
Polymarket last trade 0.2¢. No matched twin on another venue, so there is no cross-venue price to compare.
When does "Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?" settle?
Closes 2026-10-05. Pays Yes when: A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election.

Odds history

Implied odds over timebid/askmid83%41%0%Sep 29 00:01 UTCOct 05 03:10 UTC

201 archived bid/ask quotes for "Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?" on Polymarket, 2026-09-29 to 2026-10-05.

Smart money

Fills of $10,000 or more by wallets the ledger tracks, as the venue's public data API reports them: who is on which side, at what price, and the price a $100 order would pay on Polymarket now. Not a tip, and not advice.

38 tracked wallets have fills here, the biggest $37,784. Bought: No $391,029 · Yes $157,469.

All whale receipts →

How this market settles

hard deadline June 30, 2027

Pays Yes when
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election.
Who decides
If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g.,…
Venue’s stated source
https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/
When
Closes 2026-10-05.
Read the full rules Polymarket publishes

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Heads up: Polymarket has 2 disputed resolutions in our archive. Read the rules before you bet.

What this bet really costs you

  • On $100 at 1¢ you pay $6.93 in fees on Kalshi

    0.07¢ per contract · 10000 contracts

  • On $100 at 1¢ you pay $4.95 in fees on Polymarket US

    0.05¢ per contract · 10000 contracts

Polymarket rate read from the catalog for sports_fees_v3 (12,837 markets in a sample of 20,000 rows drawn from 13,959,065 in the archive). Kalshi's rate is its published general schedule; the PDF has been rate-limiting fetches, so it is documented rather than verified.

Exchange-side taker fees per each venue's published formula (rate × contracts × price × (1 − price)); contracts = stake ÷ price, rounded down to whole contracts. Fees peak at 50¢ and shrink toward the extremes. Most quoted cross-venue “arbs” are negative-EV after these fees; the taker-fee breakeven on a Kalshi/Polymarket pair is roughly 3.5–4¢.

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Polymarket moved 8¢ on US recession in 2026? in the last 60 minutes (12¢ → 20¢). Kalshi hasn't caught up — still sitting at 14¢.Get alerts
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Data: Polymarket id 0xf19d6b617a3c6382448444824b42ba172be2d88b8a1491f7dfc7be6327e510a1 · ← All tracked markets

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