Yes · Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
$102,997 at 78.8¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 78.8¢ pays $127
0x4488…e319
Every $100 on their bets came back as $102.07 · 629 bets settled since Aug 20
Not verified yet — cautious estimate not above $100
- 629 bets settled in the last 90 days — 30 is the minimum
- Cautious estimate: $95.42 back per $100 — needs to be above $100
- Active today — within the last 14 days
Bets at 97¢ or more don't count (125 left out). Checked 2026-10-05 03:20 UTC.
Best at Politics · $100 → $115last 10
Open bets you can still get in on
No · Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?
$45,723 at 86.5¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 86.5¢ pays $116No · Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
$39,483 at 80.1¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 80.1¢ pays $125
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Track record
Settled bets · newest first$100 result
- Wang Cong · UFC 332: Natalia Silva vs. Wang Cong (Women's Flyweight, Main Card)$592 at 35¢ · Oct 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Esteban Ribovics · UFC 332: King Green vs. Esteban Ribovics (Lightweight, Main Card)$1,067 at 64¢ · Oct 4 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$56
- Mick Parkin · UFC 332: Johnny Walker vs. Mick Parkin (Heavyweight, Early Prelims)$3,675 at 49¢ · Oct 3 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Penn State · Spread: Penn State (-2.5)$3,900 at 52¢ · Oct 3 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Delaware · Spread: Liberty (-7.5)$921 at 54¢ · Oct 3 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
1 bet at 97¢ or more · $9,149left out of every figure—
- No · Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?$9,149 at 99.8¢ · Oct 1 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)$0
- Bears · Spread: Eagles (-3.5)$1,590 at 53¢ · Sep 29 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$89
- Buccaneers · Spread: Buccaneers (-2.5)$342 at 43¢ · Sep 28 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Steelers · Spread: Bengals (-3.5)$1,375 at 55¢ · Sep 27 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$82
- Commanders · Spread: Seahawks (-7.5)$2,450 at 49¢ · Sep 27 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$104
- Browns · Spread: Browns (-1.5)$2,305 at 43¢ · Sep 27 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$133
- Steelers · Bengals vs. Steelers$2,000 at 40¢ · Sep 27 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$150
- Giants · Titans vs. Giants$190 at 56¢ · Sep 27 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$79
- Giants · Spread: Giants (-2.5)$2,550 at 51¢ · Sep 27 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$96
- Washington · Minnesota vs. Washington$721 at 66¢ · Sep 27 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Raoni Barcelos · UFC Fight Night: Raoni Barcelos vs. Raul Rosas Jr. (Bantamweight, Main Card)$1,050 at 42¢ · Sep 27 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Southern Miss · Spread: Tulane (-18.5)$3 at 53¢ · Sep 27 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$89
- Sedriques Dumas · UFC Fight Night: Sedriques Dumas vs. Luis Hernandez (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)$1 at 30¢ · Sep 27 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Valesca Machado · UFC Fight Night: Valesca Machado vs. Melissa Amaya (Women's Strawweight, Main Card)$1,625 at 65¢ · Sep 27 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$54
- Christian Edwards · UFC Fight Night: Christian Edwards vs. Rodolfo Bellato (Light Heavyweight, Prelims)$9,559 at 37¢ · Sep 26 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$170
- Yes · Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?$339 at 31¢ · Sep 25 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$223
- Yes · Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election?$105 at 7.9¢ · Sep 25 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will SPD win at least 31% of all valid second votes?$5,980 at 91¢ · Sep 21 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$10
- Yes · Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$8 at 5¢ · Sep 21 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Yes · Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$50,088 at 76.9¢ · Sep 21 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$30
- Yes · Will SPD win the second-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?$1,333 at 52.2¢ · Sep 21 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$92
- No · Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$1,834 at 90.1¢ · Sep 21 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$11
- Yes · Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$2,706 at 18.5¢ · Sep 21 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
1 bet at 97¢ or more · $35,964left out of every figure—
- Yes · Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$35,964 at 99.3¢ · Sep 21 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$1
- No · Will AfD win the second-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?$1,137 at 50.8¢ · Sep 21 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$97
- No · Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?$5,734 at 47.6¢ · Sep 21 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$110
- Yes · Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?$6,694 at 37.1¢ · Sep 21 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$170
- Dooho Choi · UFC 331: Patricio Pitbull vs. Dooho Choi (Featherweight, Main Card)$2,047 at 70¢ · Sep 20 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
- Joshua Van · UFC 331: Alexandre Pantoja vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card)$2,950 at 59¢ · Sep 20 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$69
- Arman Tsarukyan · UFC 331: Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card)$1,104 at 71¢ · Sep 20 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$41
- Alonzo Menifield · UFC 331: Alonzo Menifield vs. Iwo Baraniewski (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)$2,025 at 27¢ · Sep 20 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$270
- Marlon Vera · UFC 331: Marlon Vera vs. Charles Jourdain (Bantamweight, Prelims)$1,950 at 36¢ · Sep 20 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$178
- Michael Aswell · UFC 331: Michael Aswell vs. JooSang Yoo (Featherweight, Prelims)$1,170 at 39¢ · Sep 20 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$156
- Edmen Shahbazyan · UFC 331: Edmen Shahbazyan vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Early Prelims)$9,600 at 64¢ · Sep 19 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$56
- Eduarda Moura · UFC 331: Casey O'Neill vs. Eduarda Moura (Women's Flyweight, Early Prelims)$3,300 at 33¢ · Sep 19 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)−$100
10 bets at 97¢ or more · $5,417left out of every figure—
- No · Will the opposition parties win by 7 or more seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?$597 at 99.8¢ · Sep 19 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)$0
- No · Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the popular vote in the 2026 Sweden parliamentary election by 4-7%?$3 at 99.7¢ · Sep 19 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)$0
- No · Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the popular vote in the 2026 Sweden parliamentary election by 10-13%?$790 at 99.8¢ · Sep 19 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)$0
- Yes · Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the popular vote in the 2026 Sweden parliamentary election by 7-10%?$968 at 99.7¢ · Sep 19 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)$0
- No · Will the opposition parties win by 5–6 seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?$393 at 99¢ · Sep 19 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$1
- No · Will the Tidö parties win by 1–2 seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?$272 at 99.5¢ · Sep 19 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)$0
- No · Will the Tidö parties win by 3–4 seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?$39 at 99.9¢ · Sep 19 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)$0
- No · Will Green Party (MP) win less than 5% of all valid votes?$976 at 99.8¢ · Sep 19 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)$0
- Yes · Will Christian Democrats (KD) win between 5% and 7% of all valid votes?$973 at 98¢ · Sep 19 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)+$2
- No · Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the popular vote in the 2026 Sweden parliamentary election by less than 4%?$407 at 99.9¢ · Sep 19 · tx ↗ (opens in a new tab)$0
The newest 50 bets are listed; the figures above count all 629 settled bets.
6 more open bets
Yes · Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?
$23,120 at 76.5¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 76.5¢ pays $131No · Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?
$3,703 at 74.1¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 74.1¢ pays $135Bolsonaro · Lula or Bolsonaro favored on October 5?
$1,785 at 89¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 89¢ pays $112Yes · Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?
$859 at 74¢ ·
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 74¢ pays $135Yes · Will the Republican Party win the OH-07 House seat?
$271 at 19.1¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 19.1¢ pays $525No · Will the Democratic Party win the OH-07 House seat?
$2 at 17¢
Get in on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)$100 at 17¢ pays $588
By topic · $100 →
- Other215 bets$111
- Soccer157 bets$94
- MLB110 bets$105
- Sports54 bets$82
- Politics31 bets$115
- MMA29 bets$110
- NFL29 bets$82
- Weather3 bets$83
- Esports1 bets$136
Polymarket’s own figures: realized +$6,931,810 · unrealized +$51,899 · profile ↗ (opens in a new tab)
Realized and unrealized
Realized and unrealized P&L are Polymarket's own figures for this wallet, read from its public data API and labelled as such. TapeXray computes neither, and unrealized never appears in a headline.
Not verified yet — cautious estimate not above $100
- 629 bets settled in the last 90 days — 30 is the minimum
- Cautious estimate: $95.42 back per $100 — needs to be above $100
- Active today — within the last 14 days
Bets at 97¢ or more don't count (125 left out). Checked 2026-10-05 03:20 UTC.
Free channel: gaps at the next rebuild. Members: the instant one matching your watches, in your DM.
Get alerts (opens in a new tab)Members get every gap, fork and lag as the scan finds it, 35–55 minutes after the hour.
Why the board stays free
Real-time scanning costs us per scan. The 6-hour board stays free forever.
Fine print
- Wallets are pseudonymous. A wallet is its address. A name beside it is the handle its owner chose on Polymarket and set to public, and nothing else is inferred. The verified tick is earned from the record on every export, never granted by hand.
- Receipts, not advice. A receipt records what a wallet did, at what price, and what $100 would pay at the live price. Nothing here says what to bet. Research, not advice.
- Whose figures. “$100 on each bet” counts settled bets at the whale’s own price; bets at 97¢ or more are left out, and fees and slippage are not in it. Realized and unrealized P&L are Polymarket’s own, from its public data API.
- Report an error or ask for a handle to be removed: contact. How the $100 figure and the tick work: methodology.
Data: Polymarket data API, wallet 0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319 · ← All whale receipts