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Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

27¢+270

last trade · closes 2027-01-01

Open on PolymarketCompare across venues

24h volume$39.2K
Open interest$85.3K
Lifetime volume$1.7M

Quick answers

Where is "Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?" cheaper right now?
Polymarket last trade 27¢ (+270). No matched twin on another venue, so there is no cross-venue price to compare.
When does "Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?" settle?
Closes 2027-01-01. Pays Yes when: This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026, as of market close.

Odds history

Implied odds over timebid/askmid62%41%20%Oct 30 00:00 UTCNov 05 22:55 UTC

200 archived bid/ask quotes for "Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?" on Polymarket, 2026-10-30 to 2026-11-05.

Smart money

Fills of $10,000 or more by wallets the ledger tracks, as the venue's public data API reports them: who is on which side, at what price, and the price a $100 order would pay on Polymarket now. Not a tip, and not advice.

33 tracked wallets have fills here, the biggest $15,239. Bought: No $87,748 · Yes $38,820.

All whale receipts →

How this market settles

Pays Yes when
This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026, as of market close.
Who decides
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
When
Closes 2027-01-01.
Read the full rules Polymarket publishes

This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Heads up: Polymarket has 8 disputed resolutions in our archive. Read the rules before you bet.

What this bet really costs you

  • On $100 at 27¢ you pay $5.11 in fees on Kalshi

    1.38¢ per contract · 370 contracts

  • On $100 at 27¢ you pay $3.65 in fees on Polymarket US

    0.99¢ per contract · 370 contracts

Polymarket rate read from the catalog for sports_fees_v3 (13,919 markets in a sample of 20,000 rows drawn from 270,036 in the archive). Kalshi's rate is its published general schedule; the PDF has been rate-limiting fetches, so it is documented rather than verified.

Exchange-side taker fees per each venue's published formula (rate × contracts × price × (1 − price)); contracts = stake ÷ price, rounded down to whole contracts. Fees peak at 50¢ and shrink toward the extremes. Most quoted cross-venue “arbs” are negative-EV after these fees; the taker-fee breakeven on a Kalshi/Polymarket pair is roughly 3.5–4¢.

Free channel: gaps at the next rebuild. Members: the instant one matching your watches, in your DM.

Polymarket moved 8¢ on US recession in 2026? in the last 60 minutes (12¢ → 20¢). Kalshi hasn't caught up — still sitting at 14¢.Get alerts
Members get every gap, fork and lag as the scan finds it, 35–55 minutes after the hour.
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Data: Polymarket id 0x684e5b72d4e407695397a79ed75ef37273c2655ca2548791a4153233d3744696 · ← All tracked markets

Gaps close in hours.

The free channel posts at the next rebuild; members' DMs arrive as the scan finds it.

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