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PolymarketPoliticsOpen

Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?

8.9¢+1024

last trade · closes 2028-04-01

Open on PolymarketCompare across venues

24h volume$45.0K
Open interest$240.0K
Lifetime volume$886.7K

Quick answers

Where is "Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?" cheaper right now?
Polymarket last trade 8.9¢ (+1024). No matched twin on another venue, so there is no cross-venue price to compare.
When does "Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?" settle?
Closes 2028-04-01. Pays Yes when: This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Spain by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET.

Odds history

Implied odds over timebid/askmid19%11%2%Oct 30 00:00 UTCNov 05 16:22 UTC

198 archived bid/ask quotes for "Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?" on Polymarket, 2026-10-30 to 2026-11-05.

Smart money

Fills of $10,000 or more by wallets the ledger tracks, as the venue's public data API reports them: who is on which side, at what price, and the price a $100 order would pay on Polymarket now. Not a tip, and not advice.

19 tracked wallets have fills here, the biggest $25,000. Bought: No $122,691 · Yes $930.

All whale receipts →

How this market settles

hard deadline March 31, 2028

Pays Yes when
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Spain by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET.
Who decides
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
When
Closes 2028-04-01.
Read the full rules Polymarket publishes

This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Spain by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must receive a vote of confidence from the Congress of Deputies and be formally sworn-in, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Heads up: Polymarket has 1 disputed resolution in our archive. Read the rules before you bet.

What this bet really costs you

  • On $100 at 9¢ you pay $6.37 in fees on Kalshi

    0.57¢ per contract · 1111 contracts

  • On $100 at 9¢ you pay $4.55 in fees on Polymarket US

    0.41¢ per contract · 1111 contracts

Polymarket rate read from the catalog for sports_fees_v3 (13,919 markets in a sample of 20,000 rows drawn from 260,838 in the archive). Kalshi's rate is its published general schedule; the PDF has been rate-limiting fetches, so it is documented rather than verified.

Exchange-side taker fees per each venue's published formula (rate × contracts × price × (1 − price)); contracts = stake ÷ price, rounded down to whole contracts. Fees peak at 50¢ and shrink toward the extremes. Most quoted cross-venue “arbs” are negative-EV after these fees; the taker-fee breakeven on a Kalshi/Polymarket pair is roughly 3.5–4¢.

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Polymarket moved 8¢ on US recession in 2026? in the last 60 minutes (12¢ → 20¢). Kalshi hasn't caught up — still sitting at 14¢.Get alerts
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Data: Polymarket id 0x91e20860241f7c90fcff5ec348a68f953bd66a02d5662ac26cab32ac1f904be6 · ← All tracked markets

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