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Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?

4.7¢+2028

last trade · closes 2027-01-01

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24h volume$25.4K
Open interest$83.6K
Lifetime volume$1.6M

Quick answers

Where is "Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?" cheaper right now?
Polymarket last trade 4.7¢ (+2028). No matched twin on another venue, so there is no cross-venue price to compare.
When does "Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?" settle?
Closes 2027-01-01. Pays Yes when: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET.

Odds history

Implied odds over timebid/askmid21%10%0%Nov 01 00:23 UTCNov 07 00:08 UTC

201 archived bid/ask quotes for "Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?" on Polymarket, 2026-11-01 to 2026-11-07.

Smart money

Fills of $10,000 or more by wallets the ledger tracks, as the venue's public data API reports them: who is on which side, at what price, and the price a $100 order would pay on Polymarket now. Not a tip, and not advice.

41 tracked wallets have fills here, the biggest $36,281. Bought: No $309,394 · Yes $35,048.

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How this market settles

Pays Yes when
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET.
Who decides
The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Alito or one of his official representatives.
When
Closes 2027-01-01.
Read the full rules Polymarket publishes

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future. Any qualifying announcement from Alito will count for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Alito or one of his official representatives.

What this bet really costs you

  • On $100 at 5¢ you pay $6.65 in fees on Kalshi

    0.33¢ per contract · 2000 contracts

  • On $100 at 5¢ you pay $4.75 in fees on Polymarket US

    0.24¢ per contract · 2000 contracts

Polymarket rate read from the catalog for sports_fees_v3 (13,171 markets in a sample of 20,000 rows drawn from 237,279 in the archive). Kalshi's rate is its published general schedule; the PDF has been rate-limiting fetches, so it is documented rather than verified.

Exchange-side taker fees per each venue's published formula (rate × contracts × price × (1 − price)); contracts = stake ÷ price, rounded down to whole contracts. Fees peak at 50¢ and shrink toward the extremes. Most quoted cross-venue “arbs” are negative-EV after these fees; the taker-fee breakeven on a Kalshi/Polymarket pair is roughly 3.5–4¢.

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Polymarket moved 8¢ on US recession in 2026? in the last 60 minutes (12¢ → 20¢). Kalshi hasn't caught up — still sitting at 14¢.Get alerts
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Data: Polymarket id 0xa222013f2baf3e9eb0613b7dc45d2fd8a3e63177c21bd282d9bb5133d6a44986 · ← All tracked markets

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