Get alertsSign in

PolymarketCultureOpen

Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?

93¢−1329

last trade · closes 2027-01-08

Open on PolymarketCompare across venues

24h volume$45.6K
Open interest$37.0K
Lifetime volume$807.5K

Quick answers

Where is "Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?" cheaper right now?
Polymarket last trade 93¢ (−1329). No matched twin on another venue, so there is no cross-venue price to compare.
When does "Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?" settle?
Closes 2027-01-08. Pays Yes when: This market will resolve according to the title of the film with the highest 2026 gross according to the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2026/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses once data for December 31 is made available.

Odds history

Implied odds over timebid/askmid99%91%84%Oct 30 00:20 UTCNov 05 16:21 UTC

176 archived bid/ask quotes for "Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?" on Polymarket, 2026-10-30 to 2026-11-05.

Smart money

Fills of $10,000 or more by wallets the ledger tracks, as the venue's public data API reports them: who is on which side, at what price, and the price a $100 order would pay on Polymarket now. Not a tip, and not advice.

20 tracked wallets have fills here, the biggest $10,988. Bought: Yes $35,314 · No $264.

All whale receipts →

How this market settles

hard deadline January 7, 2027

Pays Yes when
This market will resolve according to the title of the film with the highest 2026 gross according to the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2026/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses once data for December 31 is made available.
Who decides
If there is no final data available by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Venue’s stated source
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2026/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses
When
Closes 2027-01-08.
Read the full rules Polymarket publishes

This market will resolve according to the title of the film with the highest 2026 gross according to the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2026/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses once data for December 31 is made available. Note: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2026 - dates outside of 2026 will not count toward this movie's gross. In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner. If there is no final data available by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Heads up: Polymarket has 1 disputed resolution in our archive. Read the rules before you bet.

What this bet really costs you

  • On $100 at 93¢ you pay $0.49 in fees on Kalshi

    0.46¢ per contract · 107 contracts

  • On $100 at 93¢ you pay $0.35 in fees on Polymarket US

    0.33¢ per contract · 107 contracts

Polymarket rate read from the catalog for sports_fees_v3 (13,919 markets in a sample of 20,000 rows drawn from 260,838 in the archive). Kalshi's rate is its published general schedule; the PDF has been rate-limiting fetches, so it is documented rather than verified.

Exchange-side taker fees per each venue's published formula (rate × contracts × price × (1 − price)); contracts = stake ÷ price, rounded down to whole contracts. Fees peak at 50¢ and shrink toward the extremes. Most quoted cross-venue “arbs” are negative-EV after these fees; the taker-fee breakeven on a Kalshi/Polymarket pair is roughly 3.5–4¢.

Free channel: gaps at the next rebuild. Members: the instant one matching your watches, in your DM.

Polymarket moved 8¢ on US recession in 2026? in the last 60 minutes (12¢ → 20¢). Kalshi hasn't caught up — still sitting at 14¢.Get alerts
Members get every gap, fork and lag as the scan finds it, 35–55 minutes after the hour.
Real-time scanning costs us per scan. The 6-hour board stays free forever.

Data: Polymarket id 0xc4b07998e8f9bf6b95f079d6dc0529f3c6f59698d4e168817ad5f99304de6c57 · ← All tracked markets

Gaps close in hours.

The free channel posts at the next rebuild; members' DMs arrive as the scan finds it.

Open the free channelSet up personal alerts